173
FXUS63 KDVN 061731
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal through
  Tuesday with precipitation also below normal.

- Near daily weak upper level disturbances aloft pose a low risk
  (10- 20%) of diurnal showers from Saturday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Windy conditions will develop late this morning and continue to near
sunset. Dry conditions with deep mixing will create wind gusts up to
40 mph. Humidity levels will be much lower with temperatures in the
70s. A passing upper level disturbance will bring an increase in
clouds to the area during the afternoon.

Tonight quiet conditions with diminishing winds will be seen as high
pressure builds into the Midwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday
Assessment...high confidence

Dry conditions with temperatures at or slightly below normal will be
seen. Deep mixing of the atmosphere will result in windy conditions
developing during the late morning and afternoon.

Friday night through Wednesday
Assessment...high confidence on slight below normal temperatures
through Tuesday. Low to medium confidence regarding rain chances.

Northwest flow will persist across the Midwest through Tuesday
helping to keep temperatures slightly below normal. Breezy
conditions are expected over the weekend.

Weak upper level disturbances will be moving through the flow aloft
on a daily basis. The overall timing of the disturbances point to
the late morning and afternoon hours. As always moisture will be the
determining factor on whether or not any disturbance produces any
rain.

Thus there is the potential for some diurnal showers and maybe a
thunderstorm Saturday through Wednesday. Coverage will be low at 10
to 20 percent. Thus while there is a low risk of rain each day, the
key message is that a vast majority of the area will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

High pressure is forecast to build into the region resulting in
VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the period. There will
be strong gusty winds through 00 UTC today with gusts up to 35
to 40 knots at KCID, KDBQ, and KMLI. We are expecting the
strongest gusts at KCID. Winds will quickly diminish after 00
UTC. Winds are expected to increase again after 12 UTC on
Friday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040-041-051-
     052.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Cousins