731
FXUS63 KDVN 110819
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
319 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with a MRGL Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms
  in the northwest this evening.

- Turning hot and more humid by mid week.

- Another MRGL Risk across the northwest for late Wednesday

- SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Today...short wave upper trof currently seen on water vapor(WV)
imagery arching from western MN into southwest NE, will continue to
try and shunt an associated elongated band of mainly light showers
and sprinkles acrs the area from late morning and through the
afternoon. As this activity encounters dry air and weak lapse rates
in place, expect a lot of it to initially decay upon arrival or be
in partial virga form. Then there may be some patchy rejuvenation
here and there in afternoon pre-frontal heating but most of this may
still look to be light and high based/elevated making for mainly
sprinkles or light showers. Attention will then turn to the main
incoming front itself, where it may interact with 600-1000 J/kg
SBCAPEs or 500 J/kg elevated MUCAPEs if it stays elevated for
potential isolated thunderstorm development this evening mainly in
the northwestern third of the DVN CWA.  Lapse rates are
marginal(below 6 C/km), but storm layer shear may range from 35-45
KTs. Thus a low chance for a stronger storm for hail and winds in
the local area this evening, but feel the Marginal Risk may not be
really warranted. Low POPs for low coverage on the evening
convective activity. Despite high clouds filtering the insolation at
times, return flow and associated WAA will help temps warm into the
upper 70s to low 80s in most areas except the northeast.

Tonight...after the evening isolated shower/storm chances, the rest
of the night light sfc flow and a bit higher sfc DPTS may allow for
some patchy fog inn spots. But lingering cirrus and short night`s
make for low confidence in this and won`t mention yet. Milder night
with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday...More robust southwesterly return flow and mixing winds
will warm things up with the CWA reaching the mid 80s to near 90.
Higher sfc DPTs seem to lag or get mixed out in the upper 50s to low
60s, so no extreme humidity or heat index`s. More enhance westerly
mid to upper jet regime nosing acrs the northern plain and NW MN
with another short wave interacting with 30-40 KT southwesterly LLJ
fed higher THTA-E should spawn storm clusters or initial MCS
development Wed afternoon and evening acrs the south half of MN into
the MO RVR Valley. Low to mid level vector propagation paths and
currently progged LLVL thermal gradient may allow for some of this
activity to bleed down into portions of the local area Wed night.
But stronger storm support/maintenance parameters remain just off to
the west Wed night and the more robust convection may occur acrs
western into central IA with us getting secondary activity. Right
now Wed night PWATs(precipital water) project to be 1.5 to 1.8
inches, so heavy rain may possible if we can get in on some
convection that maintains, as well as marginally severe wind gusts.

Thursday...A day of still somewhat of uncertainty regarding strong
convection potential, as much will depend on what occurs and lingers
out of Wed night. A further southward shunted boundary or storm
outflow, as well as lingering debris will affect local airmass
recharge potential and where late afternoon and evening storms may
re-fire.
That axis looks to be shifting southward day by day, with latest
ensemble blend MCS generation tools/parameters now hi-lighting areas
from northeast KS, acrs the northern half of MO and acrs central IL
by early Thu evening. Only the southern DVN CWA may now be impacted
by strong convection if the current trends are correct. Convective
debris, rain-cooled outflow and other things will make high temp
fcst for Thu very challenging, and worried the blend will be too warm
in spots.

Friday through Monday...Incoming LLVL ridging under temporary
northwesterly steering flow will make for some nice summer days
Friday into portions of Saturday, but Sat could be warming to above
normal. Sat night through the rest of the extended will be the
battle of incoming thermal ridge and heat, with ridge-riding MCS
storm track potential close by. Some 90s likely by Sunday and Monday
depending on storm debris or track lay out, but the blend again
looks to gone overly aggressive with the heat these days and have
loaded mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Largely a VFR TAF cycle through Tuesday. Light and variable
winds overnight into early Tuesday, before they veer to the
south and southwest and increase to 10-15 KTs by mid morning. A
band of high based light showers and sprinkles will move in from
the west and overtake most of the TAF sites on Tue, but expect
them to maintain at VFR CIGs and VSBYs. Behind that swath, a
low chance for an isolated shower or thunder storm to develop in
the VCNTY of CID and DBQ Tue evening after 00z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12