Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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442 FXUS63 KDVN 100521 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant temperatures through Monday. - Turning hot and humid by mid week. - SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tonight and Monday: Delightful late spring weather as high pressure will be settling across the area. The very dry airmass and rather light winds will allow for a comfortable night with clear skies. Lows should bottom out in the lower to mid 50s, similar to early this morning. On Monday, sunny skies and continued dry airmass will allow for afternoon temperatures to nicely rebound into the lower to mid 70s. These readings are actually about 5 degrees Below normal for early June. North winds will be in the 10 to 15 mph range. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tuesday through Thursday: Strong active zonal flow develops across the northern United States, pulling warmer air into the forecast area. Temperatures will be turning hot and also it will become more humid as the week progresses. Readings will be pushing to around 90 at most locations later in the week, with dewpoints into the 60s. Severe threat Thursday: Global models indicate a cold front arriving during the afternoon and evening. With hot, moist, and very unstable airmass in place, organized thunderstorms should erupt ahead of the front. SPC has a SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms across the entire forecast area. Mid level winds increase to 50+ KT so deep layer shear will be at least moderate if not strong. This suggests damaging winds will be the main threat. The tornado risk is yet to be determined. Friday through Saturday: Brief northwest flow should bring somewhat cooler and less humid air into the area, along with dry weather. Highs will be in the 80s. Sunday: Another upper level trough swings out of the Rockies and into the Upper Midwest. This will be the next chance of thunderstorms. However, way too early to determine the severe threat from these storms. Hot and humid conditions return with some locations pushing into the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with generally light north winds and very good visibility. A period of lower VFR clouds will affect DBQ through the early morning hours, around 3500 AGL for a cig, but this band is thinning out, and should not greatly affect locations to the south. Also, a reporting problem at the DBQ airport has limited observations potentially until the FAA tower opens in the morning, thus, I have "AMD NOT SKED" for DBQ...meaning no amendments will be issued tonight. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Ervin