Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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251 FXUS63 KDVN 110550 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Clear and cool tonight. - Turning hot and humid by mid week. - MRGL Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday AND Wednesday (northwest). - SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tonight: With high pressure settling across the forecast area, combined with calm winds and a very dry airmass, ideal radiational cooling is expected. Temperatures should drop quickly after sunset to cool lows ranging from the mid 40s east to the lower 50s west. Tuesday: Nice rebound in temperatures with plenty of sunshine to start the day, especially with a southerly wind as high pressure slips off to our east. Later in the morning and into the afternoon, mid level warm advection clouds should increase from west to east. Highs will be warmer with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Any isolated storms in our nw counties should hold off until towards evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tuesday night through Thursday: Strong active zonal flow develops across the northern United States, pulling warmer air into the forecast area. Temperatures will be turning hot and also it will become more humid as the week progresses. Readings will be pushing to around 90 at most locations later in the week, with dewpoints into the 60s. Severe threat Tuesday evening and again Wednesday night: Severe MCS`s are expected to propagate southeast out of MN and into northeast IA and northern IL. SPC has a MRGL risk (Level 1 of 5) for portions of our nw counties. Isolated large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. The greater coverage of severe storms look to remain across northern IA and central and southern MN. Severe threat Thursday: Global models indicate a cold front arriving during the afternoon and evening. With hot, moist, and very unstable airmass in place, organized thunderstorms should erupt ahead of the front. SPC has a SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms across the entire forecast area. Mid level winds increase to 50+ KT so deep layer shear will be at least moderate if not strong. This suggests damaging winds will be the main threat. The tornado risk is yet to be determined. Friday through Saturday: Brief northwest flow should bring somewhat cooler and less humid air into the area, along with dry weather. Highs will be in the 80s. Sunday and Monday: Another upper level trough swings out of the Rockies and into the Upper Midwest. This will be the next chance of thunderstorms. However, way too early to determine the severe threat from these storms. Hot and humid conditions return with some locations pushing into the lower to mid 90s with heat index values soaring to 95 to 100. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Largely a VFR TAF cycle through Tuesday. Light and variable winds overnight into early Tuesday, before they veer to the south and southwest and increase to 10-15 KTs by mid morning. A band of high based light showers and sprinkles will move in from the west and overtake most of the TAF sites on Tue, but expect them to maintain at VFR CIGs and VSBYs. Behind that swath, a low chance for an isolated shower or thunder storm to develop in the VCNTY of CID and DBQ Tue evening after 00z. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...12