283
FXUS63 KDVN 060251
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
951 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening.
  The main threat will be gusty winds up to 40 to 50 MPH.

- Slightly below normal temperatures are forecast through the
  long term period with below normal temperatures.

- Nearly daily disturbances are possible Friday through Tuesday
  and will bring the risk (10 to 20%) of diurnal showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

There is a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms on radar
across southern Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. The
precipitation marks the location of a frontal boundary. Winds
behind the front switch the the northwest with lower dewpoints.

A digging shortwave and frontal boundary are forecast to move
across the area from 00 UTC through 06 UTC. This will bring a
30 to 40 percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorm to
the area this evening. The best chances will be along and north
of Interstate 80 with 20 to 30 percent chance to the south.
Surfaced based CAPE will be low with less than 500 J/KG across
the area . There is the potential for stronger showers and
storms to mix winds down to the surface of 40 to 50 MPH this
evening but severe storms are not expected. Rainfall amounts
will be light with a tenth of an inch or less.

Behind this trough, dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s to lower
50s tonight and remain in the upper 40s through the day on Thursday.
This will result in comfortable humidity across the region
through the short term. Low temperatures on Thursday morning
will be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees with a few spots in
the mid 50s along the Highway 20 corridor.

It will turn breezy on Thursday with northwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH
and gusts up to 35 MPH. Deeper mixing may result in higher winds
late afternoon into the early evening hours. High temperatures will
be in the 70s on Thursday. Highs in the lower 70s are expected
along the Highway 20 corridor where clouds will linger through
the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Elongated troughing from southern Canada into the Northeast US
results in northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest through
the period. Several disturbances are forecast to move through
the flow during the period, especially Friday through Tuesday.
One of these disturbances is Friday night into Saturday morning
but the track of the disturbance and precipitation is dependent
on where the baroclinic zone sets up on Friday. The GFS is
farther to the north across Iowa but other models have it
farther to the south in Missouri which would keep the
precipitation chances to our south.

A shortwave trough rotating around a closed low over the Great Lakes
is forecast to drop southward across the area this weekend.
There is a 24 hour difference between the GFS, ECWMF, and
Canadian. THe GFS is much faster and brings the trough through
the area Saturday night while the Canadian delays it until
Sunday evening. This could result in rain showers across the
area but this dependent on the timing with a better chance if it
moves across the area during the day on Sunday.

High temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 70s through the
long term period with low temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The majority of the period should be VFR cigs with possibly MVFR
vsbys in heavier rain showers/storms this evening at DBQ/CID.
Otherwise, expect quiet weather overnight before winds start to
increase tomorrow with gusts in the mid to upper 20 kt range.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Gibbs