478
FNUS21 KWNS 071659
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Valid 071700Z - 081200Z

...Update...
A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The
latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind
speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central
NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20
mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and
thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC
percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning
to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and
breezy conditions. Yesterday`s rainfall across the TX Panhandle,
however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area
to the northeast.

A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black
Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of
south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have
precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the
IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far
southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for
more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest.

Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase
over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from
heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially
over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent
rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive
fuels.

..Barnes.. 06/07/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/

...Synopsis...
Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over
the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air
mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and
southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into
southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20
mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated
fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over
east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface
winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the
central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated
fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.

Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop
the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest
into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for
isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based
thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result,
isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive
fuels across the region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$