243
FNUS21 KWNS 060653
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and
Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough
will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly
flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep
winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest
may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.

...Dry Thunder...
Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move
westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very
warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may
support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher
terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains
low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper
ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary
layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely
be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while
confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for
ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area.

Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern
FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are
receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be
fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5
inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may
still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current
fuels.

..Lyons.. 06/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$