Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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057 ACUS01 KWNS 190051 SWODY1 SPC AC 190049 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TO SOUTHERN WI...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTH FL TO SOUTHEAST GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts of eastern to southern Wisconsin and the central High Plains. Isolated severe storms may develop over parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia during the early morning. ...01Z Update... Overall severe potential has diminished across much of the CONUS. Strong to marginally severe storms may linger for another hour or two across parts of eastern to southern WI. Increasing MLCIN within the modestly buoyant warm sector and diminishing low-level convergence should result in storms further weakening through late evening. High-based, low-topped convection persists across east-central to southeast CO. This activity may still produce locally strong wind gusts and small hail as storms spread east into western KS while impinging on a more buoyant air mass in KS. But with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, the overall severe threat should remain marginal. Finally, across north FL into far southeast GA, recent guidance still suggests renewed warm-advection-driven storms should develop within the lingering low-level baroclinic zone over the northeast Gulf. While overall instability will be more limited in the wake of earlier D1 convection, a low-probability severe threat might develop within the mid-level jetlet that is downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough across the Deep South and Southeast. ..Grams.. 05/19/2024 $$