543
ACUS02 KWNS 310555
SWODY2
SPC AC 310553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop
across the central and southern High Plains Saturday afternoon,
before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the
adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a
risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to extend from the TN Valley into
southwest Quebec early Saturday morning before then gradually
shifting eastward towards the East Coast and deamplifying. A pair of
shortwave troughs are expected to be over the central CONUS in the
wake of this ridging, with the southernmost shortwave likely
augmented by convection over the southern Plains on Friday. This
southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress
eastward/northeastward across the Mid-South and into the TN Valley.
Some phasing between this southern shortwave trough and the more
substantial northern-stream shortwave trough as it moves across the
Canadian Prairie Provinces/northern Plains into  Quebec/Upper
Midwest. Broad surface troughing will precede both of these waves,
with a modest surface low moving from MO across the OH Valley.

Zonal flow is expected across much of the Plains in the wake of
these shortwave troughs, with another shortwave trough forecast to
move from the West Coast into the Intermountain West. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough is also expected to move across
northern Mexico and into West Texas Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A moist airmass will remain over the central and southern Plains,
with advection into the central/southern High Plains expected as lee
troughing sharpens throughout the day. Strong heating is
anticipated, which will work in tandem with increasing low-level
moisture to destabilize the airmass. As a result, afternoon
thunderstorm development is possible along the length of the lee
trough, with the highest coverage expected over eastern CO and far
west TX. High-based, outflow-dominant storm structures are
anticipated, with at least some chance for organization into one or
more convective lines. This appears most likely across eastern CO
into western KS, but could occur farther south as well. Large hail
is possible with the initial more cellular development, but a
relatively quick transition to damaging gusts is anticipated given
the expected outflow-dominant structures. Veered low-level flow
should limit the tornado potential across much of the region except
in northeast CO and southeast NM/TX Trans-Pecos where the greatest
potential for southeasterly surface winds exists.

...MS Valley into Southeast TX and the Southeast States...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning over the
Mid to Lower MS Valley, ahead of the convectively augmented
shortwave trough expected to be progressing through the region. This
shortwave is forecast to progress gradually northeastward into the
Lower OH Valley while additional thunderstorms develop along the
southeastward/eastward-progressing outflow from southeast TX into AL
and MS. Moist but weakly sheared airmass could support multicell
structures with updrafts occasionally strong enough to produce
water-loaded downbursts.

..Mosier.. 05/31/2024

$$