671
ACUS02 KWNS 071744
SWODY2
SPC AC 071743

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ADJACENT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms -- and attendant hail/wind risk -- are
expected from afternoon through the evening from the High Plains of
Colorado southeastward to the south-central Kansas vicinity.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible across the lower
Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity.

...Central High Plains southeastward to south-central
Kansas/northern Oklahoma...
Afternoon heating/destabilization is forecast across the central
High Plains -- particularly eastern Colorado and far southeastern
Wyoming -- in a post-frontal, upslope-flow environment expected
across the area.  Isolated storms should develop over the Front
Range during the afternoon, and with a rather deep/dry boundary
layer that is expected, initially sparse convection should tend to
grow gradually upscale through the afternoon.

As a cold pool evolves, and given background west-northwesterly
mid-level flow atop a developing southerly low-level jet, upscale
growth into an east-southeastward-moving MCS appears probable.  As
such, risk for locally damaging winds, and hail, warrants upgrade to
SLGT risk across portions of eastern Colorado and across western and
south-central Kansas, reflective of this mainly evening
severe-weather potential.  Storms will eventually diminish in
intensity overnight as the low-level jet veers through the end of
the period.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated/high-based afternoon storms are expected to develop over
eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains
region, near a weak lee trough/dryline, as daytime heating/mixing
results in modest CAPE atop the deeply mixed boundary layer.  Storms
should remain isolated, but evaporative effects within the dry
sub-cloud layer could support locally strong/damaging wind gusts
with one or two of the strongest storms.  Convection should diminish
rather rapidly into the early evening, coincident with evening
stabilization of the boundary layer.

...Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley area...
Ongoing convection/cloud cover is expected early in the period, as a
decaying MCS is forecast to be moving southeastward across Missouri.
 Near and north of an associated west-to-east outflow boundary that
should lie across the Ozarks during the afternoon, some potential
for warm-advection-induced, isolated storm redevelopment appears
possible.  Conditionally, the environment would support risk for
organized/potentially rotating storms, but with a likely-to-be
convectively contaminated boundary layer, and questions regarding
storm coverage, will maintain only MRGL risk for severe weather
across this area.

A few storms may develop nearer the outflow over the southeastern
Missouri during the afternoon, and spread across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley, but a less-favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward
extent should limit severe-weather potential.

..Goss.. 06/07/2024

$$