735
ACUS02 KWNS 100556
SWODY2
SPC AC 100555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail,
will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains,
central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains...
A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the
southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow
will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model
forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by
morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature
warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it
appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the
stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement
concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to
2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on
Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot
owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast
to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain
multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail
and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats.

...Central High Plains...
Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on
Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher
terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to
move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the
afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg
range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will
only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado,
low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This
could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also
possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to
move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just
ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of
instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin,
where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast
soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast
Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for
an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that
rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells
that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain
unorganized.

..Broyles.. 06/10/2024

$$