535
ACUS02 KWNS 130526
SWODY2
SPC AC 130524

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some
to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening
across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with
damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast
during the afternoon and early evening.

...Central Plains Vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to
pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening.
This feature will result in height falls across the central High
Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing
across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is
expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE.
Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will
transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern
CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into
southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and
steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will
result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE
1500-3000 J/kg).

Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer
to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High
Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for
large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer.
With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase
toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an
east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a
risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80
mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east
extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours
should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture
return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing
airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist
along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but
confidence in this scenario is too low.

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface
trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as
south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM.

...Northeast Vicinity...

An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours.
Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in  modest
destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to
support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a
deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level
lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be
possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly
move offshore by 00z.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2024

$$