673
ACUS03 KWNS 281929
SWODY3
SPC AC 281928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will
advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At
the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley
through the afternoon.

...Ohio Valley and Midwest...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the
eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale
ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates
will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air
mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong
surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30
kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor
organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage
through the afternoon.

Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest
during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger
cells.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be
possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep
low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric
moisture (PW around 2 inches).

..Weinman.. 06/28/2025

$$