Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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865 FXUS63 KEAX 260914 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 414 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms continue this morning, with a few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. - Another round of storms is possible this afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat for severe weather toward central Missouri. - Quieter weather expected for Monday through Wednesday, with seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the region. The initial round of storms from late Saturday evening really hindered the convective environment, which has tempered the severity of the successive rounds early this morning. That being said, one severe warned storm with marginally severe hail is ongoing along I-70 near Sweet Springs. Convection is still occurring as far was as Alma to Wichita, KS as the front remains over central Kansas. All this activity will continue to move eastward through the next several hours, clearing east of the KC Metro by around 7 AM, and completely through the remainder of the county warning area by around 9 AM. Hydro concerns have also been reduced, but for now have elected to hold onto the flood watch. Additional redevelopment of severe storms is possible by mid to late afternoon toward central Missouri along the cold front. Looks like if any of our area is impacted it would be the Boonville/Sedalia area with storms quickly exiting eastward into WFO St. Louis` area. A few scattered storms will be possible further west behind the cold front by late afternoon into early evening, with marginally severe hail being the primary threat. Outside of the storm chances, high temperatures should range from the mid 70s over NW Missouri to the lower 80s elsewhere. Quieter weather arrives by Monday. A couple of mid/upper level troughs descend out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest, pivoting toward the Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday, keeping us under northwest flow aloft sending a couple of weak back door cold fronts through the region. This will help keep temperatures near seasonal normals as well as keep humidity levels relatively comfortable with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s through Wednesday. As we head into Thursday and Friday, troughing moves into the western CONUS, and will increase southerly low level return flow, bringing in increased moisture and chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Initial lines of +TSRA are progressing through the terminals over the next couple of hours. Gusty winds are possible even outside of the near thunderstorm environment. Behind the initial +TSRA, RA with VCTS continue through sunrise. CIGs lift to around 3000ft for the afternoon. Additional showers and storms are possible during the afternoon; however, that activity is expected to remain east of the terminals. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ020-021-028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...Pesel