878
FXUS63 KEAX 290846
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
346 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGE...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday
  afternoon, with periodic chances persisting into early next
  week. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Surface high pressure over the Upper Midwest has nosed into our
area, with generally light easterly winds and mostly clear skies
outside a band of clouds rooted at 10kft over central Missouri. A
wide range of temperatures exist this morning, with upper 40s in
northeast MO closer to high pressure to the upper 60s in urban core
of Downtown Kansas City. The weather for today will continue to the
pleasant and quiet theme with low humidity and high temperatures
near normal in the middle to upper 70s. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower sneaking across east central Kansas this afternoon, but the
probability is very low (under 15%).

Changes towards a more active weather pattern begin on Thursday and
generally remain through the end of the forecast period. The
environment will largely be characterized by modest instability and
low deep layer shear, so severe weather is not expected at this time
through the weekend. The primary upper trough by Thursday into the
weekend will be displaced well to our northwest/north, with a
subtropical jet over northern Mexico into Texas. In between these
primary features, semi-zonal flow will persist over the Central
Plains, with several embedded shortwave troughs moving across the
region. While the specifics in timing in coverage and amounts become
more uncertain later in the forecast period as model spread grows,
there continues to be the trend of two primary precipitation
windows; the first being late Thursday into early Friday and the
second on Monday. As for temperatures, Friday looks to be the
coolest day with signal for abundant cloud cover and lingering
precipitation chances. Otherwise, look for readings to creep back to
slightly above normal by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with a few-sct clouds
around 10kft giving way to sct-bkn high clouds aft 08Z-09Z. Aft
14Z-16Z...sct diurnal cu is expected to develop around 7kft.
Winds thru the pd will generally be out of the east btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73