449
FXUS63 KEAX 282336
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather conditions and near seasonal temperatures
  expected today and tomorrow

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday evening
  into the start of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

In the upper levels, there is troughing to our northeast over the
Great Lakes Region with a northwesterly flow over our area.
Just to our west there is a stout ridge slowly entering central
CONUS. These features reflect well in the mid levels. At the
surface, the mid/upper level troughing has produced a low to our
northwest resulting in winds over our area out of the
northwest. The cooler, drier air has resulted in pleasant
temperatures near seasonal normals. Later today, the
aforementioned mid/upper trough will begin to move southeast
towards the IN/IL border which could result in a chance for
evening showers and weak storms for parts of northeastern MO.
However, with the ridging just to our west, quiet weather
conditions are expected for our area today and tomorrow. High
temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected to range from
mid 70s-low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the pattern switches to a
more active one. Mid/upper level ridging will continue to move east
over the area. A trough develops to the northwest of the area over
the MT/Canada border extending down into the Four Corners Region. A
shortwave develops out ahead of trough which could lead to showers
late Thursday evening into overnight Friday. The GFS has backed off
the severe potential since yesterday`s runs. Both instability and
shear are lacking. We will continue to monitor this system as it
develops.

Friday the aforementioned trough to our west is expected to move
over the area through the day. At the surface, the low approaches
our area from the southwest and remains to our south. As a result,
we do not get any additional warm air advection which makes it more
of a challenge for our environment to destabilize. This is reflected
in our weak CAPE values through the day staying under 500 J/kg and
dewpoint temperatures in the mid to high 50s. Late evening/overnight
showers and storms expected mainly for the southern parts of our
region. Confidence is low regarding the severe weather threat with
these storms, however there may a chance for isolated heavy rainfall
with PWAT values exceeding an inch. If showers begin to train or
last in duration, a potential for minor localized flooding will
exist.

Multiple chances for rounds of showers and storms persist through
the start of next week with the passage of multiple shortwaves.
Expect above seasonal temperatures for the start of next week into
the mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A few-sct clouds around 10kft will affect the terminals thru
08Z-10Z aft which just sct high clouds will be expected.
Diurnal cu will develop again btn 15Z-16Z with a sct deck around
6kft. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 08Z-10Z when they will
become easterly btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...73