501
FXUS63 KEAX 031719
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, but storms
should remain sub-severe.

- A more well defined chance of thunderstorms is expected tomorrow
evening along a cold front approaching from the northwest. Storms
will be capable of producing large hail and straight line damaging
winds.

- Cooler and drier pattern setting up for the second half of the
  weekend with northwest flow prevailing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Low confidence forecast remains in the short term with unstable
atmosphere remaining, though there is not a clear sign of what, if
anything, will ignite convection across the area.  The broad pattern
is depicted with zonal flow across the lower 48, with weak embedded
short waves in the flow. Convection that formed overnight into the
Central Plains has weakened as it has worked east into a stronger
cap and weaker sheared environment. Outflow from this convection has
move into NW Missouri, with a few scattered showers developing ahead
of the boundary across north central Missouri. Have also seen a few
isolated storms develop in south central Kansas. While one of these
storms weakened, the northern storm has shown upscale growth over
the last hour or so as cluster interacts with gravity waves.  If
this area of convection remains on it`s current trajectory, could
see storms approach eastern Kansas towards sunrise.  While the
atmosphere remains unstable with roughly 2000 J/kg of CAPE, the flow
in the mid-levels of the atmosphere remains fairly weak, making it
questionable if the storms will be able to maintain themselves as
they attempt to work farther east. With weak mid-level shear, expect
any storms to largely remain below severe limits.

With ample cloud debris around today, solar heating could be
hindered slightly and have kept forecast highs in the lower 80s
region wide.

Forecast remains unclear going into tonight convection wise
with unstable atmosphere remaining with broad 20-30 knot low
level jet across the plains. There aren`t any obvious ways to
work around weak capping inversion near 750 mb, but with
lingering boundaries can`t entirely rule out the potential for a
storm or two overnight. Again, with weak flow in the midlevels,
shear looks to be fairly limited so any storm that does develop
looks to largely remain below severe limits.

Shortwave moving into the Pacific NW this morning is expected to
move into the Plains on Tuesday.  The attendant cold front with this
system is expected to shift south, and by late in the day serve as a
focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development. CAPE values ahead
of the front are expected to be in the 1-2K range, but with
increased shear, could see some stronger storms produce severe
weather.  Expect scattered storms to evolve fairly quickly into a
liner system, progressing southeast with time.  With initial
discreet storms, could see large hail being the main severe threat
before evolving into a severe wind threat.  Ensemble mean suggests
0.5-1" precipitation amounts with this system, heaviest across
eastern KS/western Missouri with lesser amounts farther east.

Behind the front, area remain under the influence of northwest flow
as trough develops over the Great Lakes region. Fairly substantial
ridge develops across the western US, but is not really ably to
expand east until at least early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For the 18Z TAF cycle...left over convection across central and
eastern Kansas is expected to stay west of the terminals along
the Kansas-Missouri state line. As a result have left any
mention of storms out of the terminals for now with VFR
conditions and a south wind prevailing. Currently, a return of
storms to the terminals looks likely Tuesday afternoon and
evening, just beyond the end of this TAF cycle.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Cutter