Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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115 FXUS63 KEAX 291957 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 257 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather conditions and near seasonal temperatures expected today - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday evening into the start of next week - Minor localized flooding risk Thursday and Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Upper level ridging to the west has resulted in high pressure at the surface over the Great Lakes Region. This high pressure has extended down into our area and has resulted in quiet weather conditions defined by easterly wind gusts to the teens and limited cloud coverage. High temperatures for today are expected to range from the upper 70s-low 80s. Thursday morning, the ridge moves over the area through the day keeping the afternoon quiet. A trough develops to the northwest of the area over the MT/Canada border extending down into the Four Corners Region. A shortwave develops out ahead of the trough which could lead to showers late Thursday evening into overnight Friday. A few isolated thunderstorms may develop but remain weak with CAPE less than 500 J/kg, and overall low severe threat with the lack of wind shear. With PWATs hovering around 1.5 inches heavy rainfall is a possibility. As a result, there are some minor flooding concerns. The aforementioned trough to our west is expected to move over the area through Friday. At 700mb, a low develops to our southwest over the KS/OK border and pushes northeast. Flow at 850mb turns southerly as the low approaches the area. Southerly flow will transport warm moist air from the Gulf, but with a saturated column, increases in CAPE will be minimal with weak lapse rates. A few isolated thunderstorms may develop throughout the widespread rain showers, but lack of wind shear will prevent organization and suppress the severe threat. However, there is another chance for heavy rainfall with PWAT values exceeding an inch. If training showers develop or showers last longer than expected, minor localized flooding is possible. The active pattern continues with multiple chances for rounds of showers and storms through the weekend. Expect above seasonal temperatures for the start of next week into the mid week. For the second half of next week mid to upper level ridging builds into the area which could lead to a continue of warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period with mostly clear skies overseeing the terminals throughout the evening and overnight hours. According to the latest model guidance, broken to overcast cloud coverage associated with a trough are expected to move across the terminals as early 12-13Z Thursday morning. Ceilings have the potential to lower below VFR thresholds as the trough moves into our area, but uncertainty is high at this time. Winds will be out of the east at around 8-10 knots this evening before shifting more southeasterly tomorrow morning as the system approaches. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Hayes