497
FXUS63 KEAX 131946
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and muggy conditions continue today with heat index
  values ranging from 100-106F degrees. A heat advisory is in
  effect from 18Z today to 01Z tomorrow for most of northwestern
  MO.

- Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into early Friday
  morning. Main threats include very large hail, damaging
  winds, localized flooding, and a tornado or two cannot be
  ruled out.

- High temperatures look to remain in the 90s from Saturday
  through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Consistent southerly moisture from the Gulf has resulted in
increased moisture and warm air over the region. This mixture has
lead to high temperatures in the mid to high 90s and dew points in
the low 70s. Heat index values are ranging from 100-106F degrees,
thus a heat advisory has been issued for 18Z today until 01Z
tomorrow.

In the upper levels, a zonal pattern remains over the region with
west-northwest flow over the area. At the surface, a low has
developed to our west over the NE/KS border. A northeast to
southwest orientated frontal boundary extends through southern IA
and is slowly sagging to the south. A decent cap has set up which
will allow instability to build through the day. With limited cloud
coverage, the cap is expected to erode as we approach the convective
temperature. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and ahead of the boundary later this evening. With a very unstable
environment in place, strong to severe storms are expected. The
instability is highlighted in steep lapse rates approaching 8C
degrees/km, 70 degree dew point temperatures, and CAPE values
exceeding 4,000 J/kg. In addition, with bulk shear values around 40
knots, there is a potential for all threats including tennis ball-
sized hail or larger, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. With
PWAT values almost reaching 2 inches, heavy rainfall cannot be ruled
out. Isolated, minimal flooding could be an issue if storms last in
duration or begin to train.

Friday, ridging pushes into the area from the southwest keeping
temperatures warm. There will be a few chances for showers and
storms through the weekend. A potential for a few strong to severe
storms does exist, but most chances seem to be during the overnight
hours. High temperatures in the 90s are expected to return Saturday
and persist through the next Wednesday. Heat advisory level
conditions may be a concern from Saturday to next Wednesday, but for
now, we will continue to closely monitor conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last until later tonight around
03Z. Until then, winds are expected to remain out the southwest
and fairly breezy with gusts up to 20 mph. Conditions are
expected to worsen with showers and thunderstorms moving over
the area. MVFR ceilings will last until around 12Z. Some areas
may experience IFR ceilings, however uncertainties exist with
cloud height. VFR conditions are expected to return late
tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
     011>014-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier