459
FXUS66 KEKA 222144
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
244 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy conditions this afternoon will diminish tonight.
Cooler temperatures tonight will increase to near-normals for the
coming days.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave has moved through the region early today
bringing fog and drizzle to the coast and clouds inland. Residual
cloudiness is expected to mostly diminish by sunset. Winds this
afternoon are currently gusting to 25 mph across much of the area,
with locally higher gusts on ridgetops reporting around 30 mph.
Winds may increase slightly this evening, but are expected to
diminish after sunset. Along the coast tonight, light northwest
winds bring the potential for stratus to move onshore, though
impacts will likely be less widespread than this morning. Inland,
drier conditions and clear skies will allow for much cooler
conditions than last night, with frost possible in interior Humboldt
and Trinity counties. Onshore flow is expected to keep temperatures
in the high 30s to low 40s along the coast, though lighter than
anticipated winds could lower the temperature further. NBM is not
showing any probabilities of frost, however. Winds are forecast to
subside tomorrow as a ridge builds in.

A shortwave will move through again Friday night into Saturday
morning. This will bring a similar setup to this morning, with
cloudy conditions and light drizzle along the coast. NBM currently
shows the chance of measurable precipitation at less than 10%. A
stronger ridge will build this weekend into early next week, with
above normal temperatures in the interior, with 80s or 90s in the
interior valleys. Higher temperatures aloft will strengthen the
marine inversion, creating the potential for stratus to become far
more widespread Sunday and into early next week. NNW breezes will
continue along the coast into early next week.

Another shortwave moves through the Pacific Northwest early next
week. Uncertainty remains on the position and how far south it will
dig, but NBM is showing probability of precipitation below 10
percent. Ensemble members wildly diverge on the pattern moving
forward going into late next week. JB


&&

.AVIATION...Skies have cleared out along the coast this afternoon
and breezy conditions are in place across the area. Tonight the HREF
shows some lower ceilings developing near KACV, but confidence is
low on if they will make it out to the airport. Even if they do they
are not expected to be particularly low or long lived. KCEC and KUKI
are more likely to remain clear tonight. Another breezy and mainly
VFR day is expected on Thursday. MKK


&&

.MARINE...Breezy northwest winds have returned this afternoon with
gusts of 20 to 30 kt in most areas. These winds are strongest just
downwind of Cape Mendocino. Steep seas are building as well,
although at the buoys they have not exceeded 5 feet yet.  Tonight
and Thursday these winds are expected to persist and possibly
increase slightly. Gale force gusts are expected south of Cape
Mendocino, but they are expected to remain fairly limited in
coverage so will hold off on issuing a gale warning for this. In
addition to the wind driven waves there are two swells moving into
the waters. There is a south to southwest swell around 2 feet at 16
seconds and a northwest swell around 2 feet at 10 seconds.

Thursday night and Friday models are in good agreement on the winds
diminishing across the waters. Winds are expected to drop to 10 kt
or less in the northern waters. Confidence is lower in the southern
waters with models ranging from 10 to 20 kt. For the weekend and
into early next week northernly winds are expected to increase
again. The current NBM shows winds are 15 to 20 kt. The northwest
swell around 10 seconds is expected to continue through the weekend.
MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for
     CAZ106>108.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470.

&&

$$

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