Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
027 FXUS66 KEKA 081137 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 437 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain seasonable through the weekend with increasing marine influence near the coast. A moderate heat wave will build early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A deep trough is currently crossing the area, covering the early morning sky with a band of midlevel clouds. Despite weakening the marine inversion, modest surface lift combined with enhanced marine influence have actually helped make a more widespread if broken and elevated marine layer all along the coast this morning. With weakened high pressure, highs will continue to cool today with interior valleys most likely reaching the mid 80s, very close to seasonal normals. Increase moisture and upper level support will allow very slight chance (around 10%) of isolated thunder to persist today over the Trinity Alps, though much weakened surface heating will reduce chances compared to the last few days. Cooler conditions will continue Sunday. Ensembles consistently show a very tilted trough brining another brief warming and drying period back to the area early next week. The nature of the system will make warming weak and short lived, however, with NBM only showing a 20 to 40% chance of any temperatures over 100. Tuesday is most likely to be the hottest day with widespread moderate HeatRisk, and locally major HeatRisk in Lake County. Though not a particularly strong dry pattern, there remains essentially no chance of any wetting rain through next week. /JHW && .AVIATION...Stratus has impacted the coastal terminals early this morning, with conditions fluctuating between LIFR and MVFR. Conditions are expected to improve after sunrise as solar radiation lifts cloud cover. Northwesterly breezes will impact all terminals in the afternoon, which will diminish after sunset. HREF currently shows around a 40 percent probability of stratus impacting ACV once again tonight, while showing little to no chance along the Del Norte coast. Low level wind shear is expected to increase after sunset in UKI, which will diminish by early Sunday morning. JB && .MARINE...Northerly gusts have largely subsided in the waters north of Cape Mendocino. They remain breezy south of Cape Mendocino, with gusts up to 25 knots being reported at Point Arena. The sea state is made up of northerly wind waves of around 5 to 7 feet at 6 to 7 seconds and a decaying NW swell of around 3 feet at 11 seconds. These conditions will largely persist through the day. Early Sunday, northerly winds increase with gale force gusts up to 40 knots likely in the expansion fan south of Cape Mendocino, along with some locally strong gusts in the northern waters. Seas will be chaotic as northerly wind waves increase to 9 to 10 feet at 9 seconds and combine with a mid-period westerly swell of around 7 feet at 14 seconds, for a combined significant wave height of up to 12 feet. Although winds will remain breezy, conditions improve slightly early week. Gales look possible again mid-week. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png