Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
741 FXUS66 KEKA 071149 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 449 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will begin to ease today with seasonable conditions persisting through the weekend. Above normal temperatures will return early next week. && .DISCUSSION...High temperatures peaked yesterday with the hottest valleys such as Big Bar and Ukiah reaching above 100 for the first time this year. Even overnight, some elevated lows have stayed above 70, especially in Lake County. Despite hot temperatures enhancing the coastal inversion, a passing upper level shortwave has provided enough lift to keep the coast mostly clear overnight. Weak high pressure will allow temperatures to begin easing today with interior valleys returning to the mid to low 90s. Increasing westerly wind ahead of an upper level trough will also help push marine influence back further inland. Despite weakened surface heating, growing upper level support will allow for another very slight chance (less than 15%) of isolated thunderstorms today over the Trinity Alps. Temperatures will bottom out over the weekend with interior highs in the mid 80s, very close to climatological normals. Westerly onshore flow along with some upper level lift will create only inconsistent and lifted marine stratus into the weekend. Where marine stratus does form, however, shallow convection will help promote patchy coastal drizzle. No wetting rain is expected for the interior with lessening instability gradually dropping the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Ensembles consistently show a very tilted trough brining another brief warming drying period back to the area early next week. The nature of the system will make warming weak and short lived, however, with NBM only showing a 10 to 30% chance of any temperatures over 100 any time. Though not a particularly strong dry pattern, there remains essentially no chance of any wetting rain through next week. /JHW && .AVIATION...Conditions at CEC have remained largely IFR overnight with some persistent low clouds and on and off visbility reductions. ACV has remained VFR most of tonight, but some IFR conditions with low cloud cover is not out of the question before sunrise. Conditions are expected to quickly improve at the coastal terminals to VFR by mid-morning. HREF is showing probabilities for stratus returning tonight into Saturday morning: 40% for CEC and 70% for ACV, which will bring IFR to LIFR conditions. Conditions at UKI are expected to remain VFR today, with light winds with some high clouds. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to be gusty in the outer waters, providing steep northerly wind waves of around 10-12 feet at 7-8 seconds, with the steepest waves in the outer waters. Wind waves are combining with a diminishing WNW swell currently around 5-7 feet at 11 seconds to create a chaotic sea state. This WNW swell will continue to diminish today. Gusty northerlies will slowly diminish into the evening, especially north of Cape Mendocino. South of Cape Mendocino, localized gusts over 30 knots are possible through the day into Friday night. Winds will peak again across all the waters late Saturday into Sunday, with northerly gusts over 30 knots possible across all the waters. Steep, hazardous seas will accompany the increase in wind. A mid-period westerly swell will fill in around 7 feet at 14 seconds, Saturday night into Sunday morning, producing a very turbulent sea state along with significant wave heights of up to 12 feet. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png