052
FXUS66 KEKA 112154
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
254 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cloudy stratus will begin to collect on the coast. Hot
and dry conditions continue through mid week for most of the
interior. Strong northerly winds will continue through tomorrow for
exposed coastal mountains and headlands. Temperatures are forecast
to trend down during the latter portion of the week, followed by
more substantial cooling over the weekend as gusty northwesterly
winds strengthen in the interior.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak cold front along with a steeper pressure
gradient, will bring gusty northerlies to bare on coastal regions
this afternoon through the evening. Not much in the way of
precipitable water as 700mb models show moisture dissipating before
reaching land and skew-T sounding`s Pwat values diminishing below
0.6 at the coast. Despite a lack of precipitation it looks like
conditions for stratus development have been primed for the
northwest facing areas which are already showing buildup from
Capetown to Klamath. A shallow inversion could pack this stratus
into the hwy 101 corridor as the evening approaches, as the HREF
ensemble mean and soundings suggests.

Dry conditions will continue through to the end of the week and into
the weekend. Of particular interest is the Heat Advisory for
Southern Lake county with temperatures from the upper 90s to low
100s. Southern Lake including Hidden Valley Lake, Middletown,
Clearlake Park, Finley, Clearlake, Knobcone Camp, and Lakeport will
be under a Heat Advisory until 8pm PDT tonight. Please be cautious
to reduce risk during outside work and schedule frequent breaks.
Those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration will be at
the greatest risk. Low to moderate heat risks are expected elsewhere
in the interior. Interior Humboldt and Del Norte counties are
projected to peak in the mid 80s to around 90F today. Temperatures
are forecasted to be similar on Wednesday.

An upper level Low persists off the coast of British Columbia, and
will provide an upstream trough with zonal westerly flow aloft,
which will edge toward the West Coast Thursday through Friday.
National Blend of Models (NBM) remains consistent with
temperatures trending down, but still above mid June normals,
especially on Thursday.

NBM indicates more substantial cooling over the weekend as another
500mb trough dips down from the NW. This trough is forecast to be
relatively dry and right now the potential for any precipitation is
quite meager, 5-10% chance for mostly Del Norte by late in the
weekend. The trough will most likely result in deeper mixing and
much stronger westerly to northwesterly winds across the interior.
There is even a chance (30-50%) for morning frost in the colder
valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt counties by Sunday. Also.
rain possibilities increase early to mid next week (June 17-19),
though still quite meager with NBM probabilities for 0.10in or more
in 24 hours no more than 20% for mostly Del Norte and northern
Humboldt counties.

&&

.MARINE...A brief reprieve in winds overnight generated a
disorganized sea state largely influenced by a mid-period NW
swell. Gusty northerlies are rapidly increasing as expansion fans
develop downwind of southern OR and Cape Mendocino. Gales expected
to enhance already elevated conditions in the southern waters
early this evening before migrating to the northern outer waters
overnight. Responsive seas approaching 12-15 feet are likely early
Wednesday into Thursday across all zones as gale gusts
approaching 40 knots drive steep northerly wind waves. Advisory
level winds and elevated seas expected to continue through the end
of this week as a series of long period westerly swells fill into
the waters.

&&

.AVIATION...Despite strong northerly winds on coastal headlands,
a weak frontal boundary traversing the north coast will briefly
push stratus into the coastal terminals. Scattered ceilings will
still allow intermittent clearing and mostly VFR conditions as
winds slowly diminish through early evening. Northerly gusts up to
20 mph anticipated at UKI late this afternoon before diminishing
beneath clear skies. Overcast IFR stratus expected to return to
ACV overnight, although light offshore winds will likely prevent
significant reductions in visibility`s. HREF indicates stratus
hanging on a bit longer than this morning south of Trinidad, once
again scattering out with increasing north winds. Lower
probabilities for a southerly wind reversal pushing stratus to CEC
before winds redevelop Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png