Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
562 FXUS66 KEKA 111320 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 515 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot weather will continue in the interior through mid week. Locally strong northerly winds are expected over exposed coastal mountains and headlands today and Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to trend down during the latter portion of the week, followed by more substantial cooling over the weekend as gusty northwesterly winds strengthen in the interior. && .DISCUSSION...Dry weather will persist through the end of the week and most likely into the weekend. Well above normal temperatures (upper 90s to 103F) are forecast today for Lake, Trinity and interior Mendocino counties. Heat advisory remains in effect for southern Lake county where localized major heat risk is anticipated. Those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration will be at the greatest risk. Low to moderate heat risk is expected elsewhere in the interior. It probably will not be quite as hot for much of interior Humboldt and Del Norte counties where temperatures are projected to peak in the mid 80s to around 90F today. Temperatures are forecast to remain about the same on Wednesday, give or take a few degrees. Also, a tighter pressure gradient is expected to develop along the coast today and Wednesday. This will promote breezy north to northwesterly winds each afternoon with gusts from 20 to 30 mph, locally higher gusts to 35-45 mph over the King Range and headlands. Locally strong and gusty northerlies will likely continue on Thu. Upstream trough in westerly flow aloft will edge toward the West Coast Thu through Fri. National Blend of Models (NBM) remains consistent with temperatures trending down, but still above mid June normals especially on Thu. NBM indicates more substantial cooling over the weekend as another 500mb trough dips down from the NW. This trough is forecast to be relatively dry and right now the potential for any precipitation is quite meager, 5-10% chance for mostly Del Norte by late in the weekend. The trough will most likely result in deeper mixing and much stronger westerly to northwesterly winds across the interior. There is even a chance (30-50%) for morning frost in the colder valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt counties by Sunday. Also. rain possibilities increase early to mid next week (June 17-19), though still quite meager with NBM probabilities for 0.10in or more in 24 hours no more than 20% for mostly Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties. DB/ZVS && .AVIATION...Stratus has returned to the coastal terminals early this morning, but has already begun to erode. VFR conditions are expected once completely eroded likely shortly after sunrise. Gusty north- northwest winds are forecast to pick up this afternoon at the coastal terminals, with peak gusts approaching 30 kts at CEC and 20 kts at ACV. Stratus is likely to make a return again tonight, especially around Humboldt Bay. It is possible southerly winds will advect stratus over to CEC, but that remains uncertain as strong northerly winds continue into the night just offshore. Conditions at UKI will remain VFR through the day, with some afternoon breezes forecast. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to be elevated in the outer waters and south of Cape Mendocino early this morning. Gale force wind gusts will ramp up today, starting south of Cape Mendocino then expanding to the northern outer waters by the evening. Seas will respond by generating ever heightening wind waves of up to 15 feet Wednesday. A series of relatively minor NW mid-period swells will also fill in through the end of the week, generating a more chaotic sea state. Gale to near-gale force gusts look likely to persist into early Friday. Seas will ease, as well, Friday below 10 feet north of Cape Mendocino. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ475. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png