816
FXUS66 KEKA 311208
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
508 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...One more summer-like day is upon us with the hottest
inland valleys expected to peak in the mid 90s. Conditions in the
northern areas are expected to deteriorate this weekend before a
short spurt of wetting rainfalls arrives Sunday night into Monday.
Southern areas will cool off but are not expected to experience any
meaningful precipitation at this time. Next week, temperatures will
soar to well above average from the interior to the coast, possibly
reaching over 100F in some places.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The current upper level ridge that been stagnate over
Northern California for the past few days looks to be migrating east
after today. We can expect our last taste of these summer-y days
today with warm temperatures and breezy afternoon winds which will
be strongest on ridgetops. The interior valleys are forecasted to
reach high temps possibly(~50%)reaching up to 95 degree highs in the
interior valleys of Lake and Trinity counties by this afternoon.

Ensemble clusters indicate that a troughing pattern may set up late
in the weekend and into next week. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
(EFI) indicates a decently high signal for more precipitation than
average from night Sunday through the morning on Monday. This rain
event likely will have minimal impacts within the region with the
National Blend of Models (NBM) indicating a 90% chance of wetting
rain (>0.1 inches) for Del Norte County and a 20-70% chance in
Humboldt County increasing probabilities the more north one is. Over
the past few days, this probability trend as steadily increased as
has confidence in this event. High-res model guidance for this event
will be available tomorrow and drastically improve our ability to
forecast the spacial and temporal coverage of this event.

After this brief rain event, temperatures all over our area will be
on a steep rise to above normal status. This will be driven by an
irregularly high ridge building over the Western United States on
Wednesday. Interior temperatures are expected to be around 90 on
Tuesday then bump up to just shy of 100 on Wednesday and Thursday.
Personally, I wouldn`t be surprised at all if we see out first 100
degree days of the year in the middle of next week as the NBM is
already showing a 60-70% chance of 100+ degrees in the interior
valleys on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds during these days of
extreme heat are currently forecasted to peak in the afternoon with
ridgetops forecasted to experience speeds of 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. On the coast we have a chance of seeing above normal, hot
temperatures as well. Eureka and Fort Bragg are both showing
temperatures in the mid-high 60s by the second half of next week.

&&
.AVIATION...Abundant clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all terminals as high pressure persists favoring dry
subsidence conditions over NW California. Gusty northerly winds will
prevail at KCEC with 25-30 kts this morning, increasing after 18Z up
to 35kts. These winds are forecast to gradually decrease after
01/03Z. Elsewhere, light offshore E flow this morning, becoming NW
at 10-15 kts after 18Z with occasional higher gusts. A weak
shortwave trough will move over the area late tonight into Saturday,
bringing mixing clouds. Model guidance are suggesting stratus
developing along the North Coast late this evening into Saturday
morning. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings at the coastal terminals after
01/07Z, primarily at KACV.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force gusts will continue over the outer waters
through late tonight. Locally gusts up to around 40 kts are expected
to redeveloped near Pt St George and downwind Cape Mendocino late
this morning and afternoon. Steep waves around 10 to 13 feet are
expected to gradually subside today through Saturday.

For the weekend an upper level trough is expected to weaken the
winds by Saturday. Sunday a northwest swell around 10 seconds will
be the main wave. Initially it is expected to be around 3 feet, but
will build to around 6 feet at 10 seconds by Tuesday.

Sunday night or early Monday these winds are expected to switch back
to northerly once again. Monday and Tuesday it looks like the
northerly winds will increase some, but not get all that strong. Mid
to late in the week high pressure builds back in and northerly winds
will increase once again.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png