791
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 04 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 106W from 04N to
16N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the wave axis
from 08N to 11N and between the wave and 110W.

along the wave axis within 60 nm of 13N105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1008 mb
over northwest Colombia to 09N84W to 09N92W to 12N101W to 10N116W
to low pressure of 1011 mb near 09N125W and to 09N130W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is seen within 120 south of the trough between
96W and 99W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 95W and
98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
180 nm south of the trough between 84W and 87W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between
131W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of
the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail
over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the
7 to 9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6 to
8 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in southwest swell. Seas
of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central
America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 6 nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will continue
off the Baja California waters through tonight, with mostly
moderate W to NW winds afterwards. Fresh NW winds are expected to
pulse at night and into the mornings offshore Cabo San Lucas
during the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open
waters. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell will continue off of Baja
California Norte through Thu night before subsiding to below 8 ft
Fri night. Hazy conditions, dense at times, may persist off
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in
the 4 to 6 ft range in long-period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions
continue off the northern Central American coast due to agricultural
fires in southern Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the
monsoon trough for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may
reduce visibilities mainly over the northern Central American
offshore waters through the rest of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to
E winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and W of 120W as were
noted in an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas with these
winds are in the 8 to 10 ft range in N to NE swell. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough with seas
of 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell across all but the far
NW waters, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail S of the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, seas over the trade wind zone in the western
waters will gradually subside through Wed. Otherwise, little
change is expected to the current conditions over much of the
area the next few days.

$$
Aguirre