568
AXPZ20 KNHC 030947
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 03 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 101W from 04N to
16N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Disorganized
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
60 nm of 12N103W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of 08N102W. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for
significant additional development of this system as it is
expected to weaken during the next few days as it moves little.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over northern
Colombia to 09N84W to 09N90W to 11N99W to 10N105W to 10N116W to
09N122W to low pressure near 08N131W 1011 mb and to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm
south of the trough between 100W and 108W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough
between 99W and 102W. also within 60 nm north of the between
109W and 113W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 118W
and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of
the trough between 118W and 125W, also between 136W and 140W and
within 60 nm south of the between 118W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of
the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail
over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the
6 to 9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6 ft
off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico, seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in southwest swell. Seas
of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central
America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
off the Baja California waters through Tue night, then mostly
moderate W to NW winds afterwards. Fresh NW winds are expected
at night and into the mornings offshore Cabo San Lucas through
the end of the week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
prevail across the open waters. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in NW swell
will continue off of Baja California Norte through this
afternoon. Hazy conditions, dense at times, may persist off
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle NE winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
4 to 6 ft range in long-period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions
continues off the Central American coast due to agricultural
fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may
decrease at times to around 5 nm or less.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the
monsoon trough for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American
offshore waters the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to 21N and W of 120W. Seas
with these winds are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough seas of 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell
prevail across all but the far NW waters, where seas are in the
5 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft
prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds over the
western part of the area are forecast to diminish to mostly fresh
speeds this afternoon. The associated seas will slowly subside
through Tue. Otherwise, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days.

$$
Aguirre