619
AXPZ20 KNHC 021430
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W/98W, from 16N southward,
moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 07N to 15N between 95W and 101W. Active
disorganized convection is expected to continue with this system
into the early part of the upcoming week while it moves slowly
westward well to the south of the coast of Mexico. However,
development of this system appears unlikely.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N94W to 09N106W to
09N131W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 15N between 94W and 105W, from 04N to 11N
between 105W and 132W, and from 05N to 15N between 132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of
the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh
northwesterly winds across the Baja California waters extending
southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas
are in the 6-8 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte,
and 6 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters
off Mexico, seas are in the 5-6 ft range in southwest swell.
Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy
conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and
Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5
nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
off the Baja California waters through the early part of the
upcoming week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail
across the open waters. Seas of 7 to 8 ft in NW swell are
expected off of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy
conditions, dense at times, may persist off southern Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
S Mexico and Central America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range in long- period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions
continues off the Central American coast due to agricultural
fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may
decrease at times to around 5 nm or less.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the
monsoon trough for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American
offshore waters the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to locally strong
NE winds N of the monsoon trough to 21N and W of 120W. Seas with
these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft in north to
northeast swell prevail across all but the far NW waters, where
seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and seas
of 5-6 ft prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds over the western
part of the area are forecast to diminish to mostly fresh speeds
Mon afternoon. Associated seas will slowly subside through late
Mon. Otherwise, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days.

$$
AL