732
AXPZ20 KNHC 220851
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to a 1007 mb low pressure
near 12N108W to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough and E of 115W.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 15N and
west of 110W.

Moderate to fresh NW winds persist off Baja California, between
strong high pressure west of the area over the northeast Pacific,
and lower pressure over central Mexico. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft
continues north of Punta Eugenia, beyond 90 nm offshore impacting
the waters around Guadalupe Island. Light to gentle breezes
persist elsewhere off Mexico with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in open
waters due to a mix of NW and SW swell. Smoke from regional
agricultural fires has spread light to medium haze across the
offshore waters over southern Mexico which could reduce
visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California
offshore waters will continue through Sat night. NW swell moving
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will persist
into Thu. Winds in the Gulf of California could increase to
moderate to briefly fresh tonight as low pressure temporarily
deepens over the Colorado River Valley, then again Sat night as a
dissipating cold front moves into the region. Light to medium
haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could
reduce visibilities over the southern Mexico offshore waters
through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the offshore
waters off Costa Rica beyond 120 nm, due in part to converging SW
winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough.
Moderate SW winds are evident south of 10N, with light and
variable winds north of 10N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft
primarily in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires
persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far south
as Nicaragua, which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia
through Thu. For waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to
fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist
south of 10N through the period, with light to gentle breezes
north of 10N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by
agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over
portions of the Central America offshore waters through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1007 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near
12N108W. Fresh to strong SW winds near the low are converging
into the monsoon trough between 100W and 110W. Combined seas in
this area are 7 to 9 ft. The convergent SW winds are also
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm
south of the monsoon trough.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure centered
near 40N142W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north
of 05N and west of 110W, and primarily fresh NE to E trade winds
from 08N to 27N west of 135W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9 ft is
evident north of 28N between 115W and 140W. Combined seas are 7
to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 134W. Gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island by
Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish accordingly near the low
pressure, and showers and thunderstorms activity to weaken along
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken
through Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish
slightly, including the large NW to N swell west of Baja
California. Little change is noted over the remainder of the
area.

$$
ERA