845
AXPZ20 KNHC 051541
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 111W from 15N southward, and moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 10N between 109W and 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends westward from near the Honduras-
Nicaragua border through 11N100W to 10N123W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 10N123W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 78W
and 99W. Similar convective activity is near 08N102W. A cluster
of moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 10N
W 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high near 30N142W to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this
high and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore Baja California Sur,
and gentle to moderate winds offshore from Baja California
Norte due to a presence of low pressure near 31N120W. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the coastal waters.
Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas exist in the Gulf of
California. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. Hazy
conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and
Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm at times.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds will
continue off Baja California Sur through this weekend, while
winds near Cabo San Lucas will pulse between fresh and strong
during the nighttime and early morning hours through Fri morning.
Large NW swell is going to cause rising seas off Baja California
Thursday and Friday. Hazy conditions caused by smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue offshore of central
and southern Mexico for the next couple of days, reducing
visibility to near 5 nm at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found in the offshore waters of
Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua, north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds prevail for the
waters near Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia, near and south of
the monsoon trough. Seas in both areas range from 4 to 6 ft.
Hazy conditions are noted mainly over the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador due to smoke coming from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Mostly gentle
southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell
are occurring in the waters near the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador.

For the forecast, abundant moisture in a SW wind flow will persist
across the Central America offshore waters through Fri helping
the development of showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle
winds will prevail north of 10N, while moderate to locally fresh
winds are expected south of 10N for the next several days.
Meanwhile, hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural
fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities
mainly over the northern Central American offshore waters for the
next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high near 30N142W supports gentle to moderate trades
along with 5 to 7 ft seas from 10N to 20N W of 130W. An area of
seas in the 8 to 9 ft range is noted 09N to 14N W of 137W.
Elsewhere N of 10N and W of 110W, gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow is observed with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

For the forecast, large NW swell will reach 30N early this
evening, then progress southeastward through Fri. Anticipate Seas
north of 21N build up to 10 ft by Thu morning, then gradually
subside this weekend.

$$
GR