946
AXPZ20 KNHC 250324
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 13N110W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N97W to beyond 06N140W. Moderate convection
extends from 06N to 08N between 100W and 102W, and from 08N to
10N between 106W and 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered well northwest
of the region near 40N150W southeastward through the Revillagigedo
Islands. A 996 mb low pressure area is centered over central
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh off Baja
California Norte, where combined seas are 5 to 7 ft with a
component of NW swell. Fresh SW to W gap winds may be starting
over the northern Gulf of California, associated with a trough
moving across the lower Colorado River Valley. Light to gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft combined seas
primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW gap winds will continue
to pulse across the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sat
morning, associated with the trough moving through the lower
Colorado River Valley. Fresh to strong winds may pulse off Cabo
San Lucas overnight as well. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW
winds and moderate NW swell will persist through mid week off
Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro between the weak
ridging to the west and lower pressure over central Mexico.
Light to gentle breezes will persist elsewehre. Hazy conditions
may persist off Chiapas and Oaxaca due to agricultural fires over
southern Mexico through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light breezes persist north of the monsoon trough along roughly
10N, with gentle to moderate S to SW breezes farther south.
Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. No significant shower
or thunderstorm activity is evident. Hazy conditions may be
ongoing over the near shore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua
due to mostly agricultural fires onshore.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist
S of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light
to gentle winds are expected N of it through mid week. Light haze
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore
waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure south of Socorro Island has weakened to a
trough along roughly 112W between 10N and 15N. A cluster of
showers and thunderstorms are still active in moderate SW flow
into the monsoon trough between 100W and 110W. Ridging is
dominant north of 10N and west of 115W. This pattern is
supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds north of the 10N and
west of 115W, occasionally pulsing to 20 kt from 10N to 15N west
of 135W. Combined seas have been diminishing over the past
several hours, with the only pocket reaching 8 ft near 10N140W
along the area of moderate to fresh trade winds. Gentle breezes
and moderate seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will weaken some through the
weekend, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly.
This will continue through early next week before the high
pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the
remainder of the area.

$$
Christensen