209
AXPZ20 KNHC 180919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 14N100W to a 1009 mb low
pressure situated near 11N106W to 06N125W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 90W and 100W, and
from 08N to 11N between 105W and 110W. Similar convective
activity is noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds. Elsewhere, including the
Gulf of California, winds are gentle or weaker. Seas are 5 to 7
ft along the Pacific waters and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of
California. Reduced visibilities were noted south of S Mexico due
to agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the surface ridge over the waters west of the
Baja California peninsula along with a trough over NW Mexico
will promote fresh NW to N winds over the Pacific north of Cabo
San Lucas for the next several days. Disorganized showers and
thunderstorms persist several hundred miles to the south of the
coast of southern Mexico along a trough of low pressure.
Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it
moves slowly westward during the next few days. Looking ahead,
large NW swell may impact the outer forecast waters of Baja
California Norte beginning on Mon. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are likely
expected N of Punta Eugenia through mid-week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the Central American and
equatorial Pacific waters due to a weak pressure gradient over
the area. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11-12N will
help to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the Central American waters for the next couple of days. Away
from the isolated thunderstorms, winds should remain moderate or
weaker through early next week. Southerly swell moving through
the regional waters will support seas of 4 to 6 ft, building to
5 to 7 ft early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is
forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 06N to 16N west of
120W. Seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range within these winds based on
an altimeter pass. A 1009 mb low pressure is along the monsoon
trough near 11N106W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are noted
on the SE semicircle of the low center to about 07N. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the
basin due to cross equatorial SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
forecast waters N of 10N and W of 110W through the upcoming
weekend with moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate
seas along the southern periphery of its associated ridge. The
high pressure will strengthen Sun into Mon bringing some increase
in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, and in
the trade wind zone. Large SW swell should reach near the equator
west of 100W later today and continue through Sun.

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce
a small area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has
become more diffuse than yesterday, and marginal environmental
conditions due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant
development. This system should remain nearly stationary during
the next day or so, but by the end of the weekend, the low is
forecast to interact or merge with another system to its east.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms (the second system) persist
several hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico
along a trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if
any, should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during
the next few days.

$$
GR