Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
432 AXPZ20 KNHC 272116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N103W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N116W to 08N126W. The ITCZ continues from 08N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen N of 02N and E of 83W to the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama. Similar convective activity can be found from 05N to 09N between 90W and 105W, and from 07N to 11N between 108W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds persist off Baja California between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over central Mexico. The most recent altimeter satellite pass indicated 4 to 6 ft combined seas off Baja California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas, in primarily SW swell, persist elsewhere outside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over central Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro into mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, expect building seas with the arrival of long period NW swell beyond 90 nm off Baja California from late Wed through Fri, with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the Papagayo region, and the offshore waters of Nicaragua to about 88W. Light to gentle winds are evident elsewhere across the offshore waters of Central America while gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters of Colombia and Ecuador. Mainly light winds surrounds the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are noted east of 83W affecting the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NE to E are expected in the Papagayo region through Thu, increasing to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night into Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses of SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across most of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted, except W of the Baja California Peninsula where moderate to fresh winds are blowing. S of the monsoon trough, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail. Combined seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate most of the forecast area based on altimeter data. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place north of 10N and west of 110W through the next several days. By mid-week, this system will strengthen some north of the area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds across the trade wind zone, with seas building to 8 ft mainly west of 130W. $$ GR