Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
422 AXPZ20 KNHC 202155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 12N104W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 103W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 87W and 97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure continues to stretch across the NE Pacific southeastward to near 24N114W. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lucas, and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 6 to 7 ft in a mix of NW and SW swell south of Cabo San Lazaro. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail, with 3 to 4 ft seas at the entrance of the Gulf and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread across the offshore waters over southern Mexico which could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week. This will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of the Baja California peninsula through Sat night. Winds will pulse to strong speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight. NW swell moving across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through Thu. Seas are expected to build 8 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia tonight through Wed, with seas subsiding below 8 ft on Fri. Light concentrations of smoke due to agricultural fires is expected to maintain hazy skies and may reduce visibility over portions of southern Mexico through Tue. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Numerous strong convection is impacting the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia, N of 02N between 77W and 86W, including the Gulf of Panama. These storms are bringing frequent lightning strikes and likely gusty winds and locally rough seas. Exercise caution in this area. South of monsoon trough around 07N, moderate to locally fresh winds are noted, including the South American offshore waters. North of 07N, gentle to moderate winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo but light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters due to long period SW swell. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft across the rest of the offshore waters. Smoke from agricultural fires across the region from Mexico may be impacting areas as far as northern Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will keep impacting waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Wed. For waters south of 07N, winds will be moderate to locally fresh through Fri. North of 07N, light to gentle winds will prevail. Long period SW swell will continue to bring seas of 6 to 8 ft in the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Tue. Seas of 5 to 7 ft will persist elsewhere through the rest of the week. By the weekend, winds across the rest of the area will be light to gentle. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1037 mb, located N of the forecast area near 40N142W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 14N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds from 06N to 31N and W of 115W. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range within these winds in NW to N swell. Elsewhere south of 07N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging N and SW swell prevail W of 110W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern periphery of the ridge, and mainly W of 130W. Winds could pulse to strong through Tue. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to combine with northerly swell to dominate area waters through Wed before subsiding. Seas of 8 to 10 ft across the trade wind zone will begin to slowly subside by Wed, and subside below 8 ft by Fri. $$ AReinhart