044
AXPZ20 KNHC 241536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border
to 11N95W to a 1011 mb low pres near 12N111W to 08N118W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N118W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 100w and
115W. Similar convective activity is near 13N92W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1034 mb located NW of the area extends a ridge
across the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure
over central Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to
NW winds across Baja California offshore waters where seas are in
the 5 to 7 ft range due to NW swell. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate
southerly winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California,
while light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the
Gulf. Seas are 2 to 3 ft at the entrance of the Gulf of
California and northern half, with seas to 2 ft across the rest
of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, light
to gentle winds persist. Seas range 4 to 6 ft along the southern
Mexico offshore waters in mixed NW and SW swell. Smoke from
regional agricultural fires has spread light haze across areas
from the southern Gulf of California and southern Baja California
offshore waters to the Chiapas region. This could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge, that dominates the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California, will begin to retreat through
the weekend as the high pressure NW of the area weakens. Moderate
to locally fresh NW to N winds will continue over the Baja California
offshore waters through Mon night. Winds in the northern Gulf of
California will pulse to strong tonight as low pressure temporarily
deepens over the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail through the weekend over the remainder of the Gulf
of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the Central
America offshore waters and Colombia. This convective activity is
related to the monsoon trough with axis along 10N-11N. Some
storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally
rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are S of the
monsoon trough while light and variable winds are north of it.
Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke
from regional agricultural fires persists across the Central
America offshore waters, as far south as Costa Rica. Medium haze
can be expected along the coast with light haze elsewhere. This
could reduce visibilities at times.

For the forecast, abundant moisture, in a SW wind flow, will
continue to enhance the development of showers and thunderstorms
over the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia through the
upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist
S of the monsoon trough with axis along 10N-11N while light to
gentle winds are expected N of it through at least Sun. Light
haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore
waters through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near
12N111W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this
low, particularly on the SE semicircle. Combined seas in this
area are 5 to 6 ft.

As previously mentioned, high pressure of 1034 mb located NW of
the area extends a ridge across the forecast waters north of 15N
and west of 110W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh
trades north of the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 120W. Seas of 8
to 9 ft are noted per scatterometer data from 06N to 15N W of
135W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will weaken some through the
weekend, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly.
This will continue through early next week before the high
pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the
remainder of the area.

$$
GR