546
AXPZ20 KNHC 052116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 112W from 15N southward, and moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 10N between 110W and 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends westward from near the Honduras-
Nicaragua border through 11N100W to 10N122W. The ITCZ continues
westward from 10N122W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 90W
and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 09N
between 80W and 86W, and from 06N to 08N between 100W and 102W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high near 31N141W to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this
high and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore Baja California Sur,
and gentle to moderate winds offshore Baja California Norte due
to the presence of a 1013 mb low pressure near 31N120W. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft, with the exception of 3 to 5 ft in the
coastal waters. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas exist
in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore
waters. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern
Mexico and Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm at
times.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds will
continue off Baja California Sur through this weekend, while
winds near Cabo San Lucas will pulse between fresh and strong
during the nighttime and early morning hours through Fri morning.
A new swell event will propagate across the offshore of Baja
California Thu and Fri building seas to 8 to 9 ft N of Punta
Eugenia on Thu, and to 6 to 8 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and
Punta Eugenia on Fri. Hazy conditions caused by smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue offshore of central
and southern Mexico for the next couple of days, reducing
visibility to near 5 nm at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found in the offshore waters of
Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua, north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds prevail for the
waters near Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia, near and south of
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted
in the Gulf of Panama Seas. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft with the
highest seas across the outer forecast waters. Hazy conditions
are noted mainly over the offshore waters of Guatemala due to
smoke coming from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and
Central America. Light and variable winds surround the waters of
the Galapagos Islands, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell,
except in the lee of the islands. Mostly gentle to moderate
southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, abundant moisture in a SW wind flow will persist
across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters through
at least Fri. This will support the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Light to gentle winds will
prevail north of 10N, while moderate to locally fresh winds are
expected south of 10N for the next several days. Meanwhile, hazy
conditions caused by smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico
and Central America may reduce visibilities mainly over the
northern Central American offshore waters for the next couple of
days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure located near 31N141W dominates most of
the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient
between the high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ
supports moderate to locally fresh trade winds along with 5 to 7
ft seas from 10N to 20N W of 130W. An area of seas in the 8 to 9
ft range is noted 09N to 14N W of 137W. Elsewhere N of 10N and W
of 110W, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is observed with
seas of 5 to 7 ft, except N of 28N where seas are building to 8
ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
prevail S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the region while weakening somewhat as a
surface trough roughly develops N of 20N between 120W and
125W over the next couple of days. Large NW swell will continue
to propagate across the north waters on Thu building seas to 8 to
10 ft N of 24N between 118W and 135W. Seas will subside below 8
ft later on Fri.

$$
GR