613
AXPZ20 KNHC 300857
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving west at 10 to 15 kt off the coast of
Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific, north of 07N. Scattered
moderate convection is evident within 90 nm of the tropical wave
axis from 07N to 10N. The tropical wave will enhance E gap wind
flow across the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N105W to 08N115W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 1011 mb low pressure near
07N131W to 08N137W to another 1011 mb low pressure near 08N137W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N to 09N between 121W and 124W, and from 07N to 09N between
131W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough
over north central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds
west of the Baja California peninsula, as noted in recent
observations. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder
of the discussion waters. Recent altimeter satellite passes
indicate 5 to 6 ft combined seas are west of the Baja California
peninsula, and 4 to 5 ft over the remainder of the open waters
off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Hazy
conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and
Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or
less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail off the
Baja California peninsula through early next week. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds will prevail across the open waters. Seas
will build to 9 to 10 ft in long period NW swell off of Baja
California Norte tonight to Mon. Hazy conditions may persist off
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A scatterometer satellite pass from 03 UTC confirmed moderate to
fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range. Hazy conditions continue off the Central American
coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central
America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are forecast across
the Papagayo region into Sat morning. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central
America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central
American offshore waters the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
near 22N and W of 120W. Moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are
elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft,
are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days. The main
exception is N swell will move into the waters north of 25N and
east of 130W tonight through Fri, with seas peaking near 10 ft.

$$
Christensen