Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
868 AXPZ20 KNHC 280940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 1011 mb low pressure near 09N117W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 08N between 85W and 88W, from 10N to 12N between 103W and 106W, from 08N to 10N between 110W and 113W, and from 10N to 12N between 116W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer pass from 0430 UTC indicated moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated 5 to 6 ft seas in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 4 to 5 ft seas persist elsewhere primarily in SW swell, except with 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over central Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro into mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, expect building seas with the arrival of long period NW swell beyond 90 nm off Baja California from late Wed through Fri, with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer pass indicated moderate SW winds south of the monsoon trough along rough 10N. It also showed light to gentle breezes north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft overall. Divergent flow aloft associated with a sharp upper trough reaching from central Cuba to Nicaragua is supporting a couple of clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Another smaller cluster of thunderstorms is active off Guatemala. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NE to E are expected in the Papagayo region through Thu, increasing to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night into Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses of SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Convection continues to pulse near a weak low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 16N117W. Local strong winds and rough seas may be occurring for brief periods in the thunderstorm activity within 90 to 120 nm of the center of the low. Elsewhere, recent scatterometer satellite passes confirm mostly moderate trade wind flow persists between roughly 08N and 22N west of 120W, supported by broad ridging north of the region. However, there are a few embedded areas of winds to 20 kt, hinting the gradient may be tightening as the ridge builds. Combined seas in this area are still 5 to 7 ft per recent altimeter satellite passes. Light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure will likely weaken to a trough in the next 36 to 48 hours between 125W and 130W. But building high pressure north of the region will support an increased area of fresh trade winds, mainly from 08N to 22N west of 120W, allowing seas to build to 8 ft by mid week. Meanwhile, northerly swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W Wed and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8 to 10 ft in a combination of NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. $$ Christensen