427
AXPZ20 KNHC 250921
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 16N95W to 13N110W, and
from 10N115W to 06N130W. The ITCZ extends from 06N130W to beyond
06N140W. Moderate convection extends from 07N to 10N between
95W and 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging extends across the waters north of 20N, with lower
pressure over central Mexico. This pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh off Baja California Norte, where combined seas
are 5 to 7 ft with a component of NW swell. Fresh SW to W gap
winds may be ongoing over the northern Gulf of California,
associated with a trough moving across the lower Colorado River
Valley. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with 3 to 5
ft combined seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW gap winds will pulse across the
northern Gulf of California early this morning, associated with
a trough moving through the lower Colorado River Valley.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate NW swell will
persist through mid week off Baja California mainly north of
Cabo San Lazaro between weak ridging to the west and lower
pressure over central Mexico. Light to gentle breezes will
persist elsewehre. Hazy conditions may persist off Chiapas and
Oaxaca due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light breezes persist north of the monsoon trough along roughly
10N, with gentle to moderate S to SW breezes farther south.
Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. No significant shower
or thunderstorm activity is evident. Hazy conditions may be
ongoing over the near shore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua
due to mostly agricultural fires onshore.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light to
gentle winds are expected north of it through mid week. Light
haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore
waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface trough persists south of the Revillagigedo Islands
along 113W from 12N to 17N. A cluster of showers and
thunderstorms are still active in moderate SW flow into the
monsoon trough from 07N to 10N between 95W and 97W. Ridging is
dominant north of 20N and west of 115W. This pattern is
supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds north of the 10N and
west of 115W, occasionally pulsing to 20 kt from 10N to 15N west
of 135W. Combined seas have been diminishing over the past
several hours, with the only pocket reaching 8 ft near 10N140W
along the area of moderate to fresh trade winds. Gentle breezes
and moderate seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will weaken some through the
weekend, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly.
This will continue through early next week before the high
pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the
remainder of the area through the early part of the week. Looking
ahead, a small and weak disturbance may occur along the monsoon
trough or ITCZ between 120W and 125W by mid week, accompanied by
fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas.

$$
Christensen