044
FXUS64 KEPZ 221743
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1143 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Warm, dry, and breezy weather the next several days and into the
weekend. Temperatures will be near normal for late May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Prevailing southwest flow through the next several days, keeping
the region dry and temperatures steady right near normal for late
May. Lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s through next
weekend, with afternoon winds 10 to 20 mph out of the southwest.
Model analysis suggests the lee surface trough will be most
pronounced on Thursday and Saturday, allowing for a slight uptick
in midday wind gusts. GFS showing a 991 mb low over SE Colorado
on Thursday and 987 mb low in the same place on Saturday, with an
even pressure gradient extending down through New Mexico and west
Texas. Peak gusts those afternoons will be in the 30-40 mph
range.

Main weather concern will be fire danger given the extremely dry
air, lack of precipitation, and breezy southwest winds.

Extended models show good confidence in a broad ridge moving over
the US Southwest early next week, along with a surface high across
the Southern Plains allowing for a westward intrusion of moisture.
This could potentially bring storm chances as far west as the Rio
Grande corridor the last week of May, but plenty of time for that
forecast to change between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds west/southwest
12-17G25 knots diminishing to west 7-10 knots after 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Near-critical fire danger today. Extremely dry conditions with min
RH 3-10%. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph this afternoon, keeping us
just below Red Flag criteria. Smoke ventilation becoming
Excellent by the noon time hour with transport to the ENE.

Very similar weather conditions day-to-day as stagnant dry,
southwest flow remains in place through the weekend. A slight
uptick in winds looks most likely Thursday and Saturday due to a
better establishment of a lee surface trough across New Mexico.
We may need Red Flags those afternoons as winds exceed critical
thresholds.

Rapidly drying fuel conditions expected this week due to the low
humidity, poor overnight recoveries, and breezy afternoon winds.
ERCs are near normal over Gila NF (50-70th percentile), but well
above normal across the southwest lowlands and Lincoln NF
(75-98th percentile). These numbers are forecast to increase
quickly the next few weeks as continued dry weather and favorable
fire conditions continue. Slight storm chances exist early next
week due to an intrusion of moisture from the east, but no
beneficial wetting rains are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  63  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            89  58  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  56  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               89  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  44  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    88  55  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              80  48  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   90  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                88  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                93  54  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             95  58  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  63  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            88  52  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    90  51  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 90  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  55  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  79  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                77  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 76  45  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  80  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                85  51  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  49  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             80  45  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   83  45  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    86  50  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               81  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  83  49  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   88  50  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  88  53  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           88  50  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               83  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner