126
FXUS64 KEPZ 311704
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1104 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Above normal temperatures, breezy afternoons and mostly dry
conditions can be expected through the forecast period. Slight
chances for precipitation possible today through Sunday but
Saturday could be the best chance for rain in Otero and Hudspeth
counties. Hot temperatures are expected to stay the next 7 days,
but Wednesday and Thursday appear to feature the hottest
temperatures. In addition, areawide rain chances possible heading
into Thursday and Friday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Today through Monday:
500 mb flow generally stays zonal with the exception of a few
wiggles in the flow here and there through Monday. Surface
moisture is expected to push in tonight and parts of the morning
hours but isn`t expected to progress too far westward. Moisture
may only reach portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties before it
shifts eastward tomorrow. The dryline does stay fairly stagnant
and may hover over the eastern CWA line through the day. This will
unfortunately hurt our precipitation chances but the Sacramento
Mtns could have a chance to see a shower this afternoon. The
dryline surges west Friday night into Saturday making better
progress than the day before. It looks like the dryline could make
it as far as the Rio Grande Valley Saturday morning and pushes
east through the day. A slight chance for thunderstorms exists in
eastern Hudspeth and Otero counties that afternoon but looks like
most of the action stays just east of the area. We continue to
play the dryline game on Sunday but moisture seems to push out too
soon for storms to get going, leaving the area dry.

High temperatures stay above normal today and through Monday with
lowlands seeing mid 90s to low 100s and the mountains with high
temperatures in the low 70s/mid 80s.

Tuesday through Friday:
Low pressure is expected to form just west of Baja California
early during the work week and is expected to remain in this same
general position through the forecast period. This will allow for
building high pressure over the area as an upper-low will be found
over the Great Lakes towards the end of the work week. This
appears to be setting up as an omega blocking pattern keeping high
pressure over the area. However, the GFS allows for good moisture
over the area Thursday/Friday allowing for rain chances areawide
but the EC doesn`t feature this moisture tap keeping the area
mostly dry. Confidence is low right now as to what will happen but
something to keep an eye on.

Expect temperatures to remain hot through the forecast period, but
especially Wednesday and Thursday as El Paso could reach 103/104
these days. This will be close to heat advisory criteria as low
temperatures are nearing the 75 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. Dryline will push into far eastern
areas and with the possibility of FEW-SCT030-040, mainly along the
eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist today through
Wednesday as much of the area will continue to see critical min
RHs areawide, with the lowlands still seeing single digit values.
Rain chances continue to look bleak but a shower or two is
possible in the Sacramento Mtns this afternoon. Moisture surges in
Saturday morning and makes it as far west as the Rio Grande
Valley but quickly shifts east through the day. Thunderstorms
possible for eastern portions of the Sacs but storms quickly
progress eastward out of the area. Our last chance for rain the
next few days will be Sunday as the dryline is expected to push
into the area once again that morning. However, the dryline looks
to push out of our area before storms have a chance to get going.
Dry lightning could be possible any of these three days over the
weekend. Otherwise, the area stays dry with above average
temperatures and breezy afternoons each day. Wednesday and
Thursday look like the hottest days of the forecast period. Models
are hinting at areawide rain chances towards the end of the work
week, but confidence still remains low if this will come to
fruition.

Ventilation rates will stay very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            93  64  93  66 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces               98  61  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               96  60  96  60 /  10   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               73  49  73  50 /  20   0  20  10
Truth or Consequences    95  62  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              87  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   97  57  97  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                94  55  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       97  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                98  60  96  60 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Hancock            100  60 101  60 /   0   0  10  10
Loma Linda               90  61  90  61 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                   99  63 100  63 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             95  61  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           97  64  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            96  51  97  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    98  57  97  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 96  62  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                95  62  95  62 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                  82  52  84  54 /  20   0  20  10
Mescalero                84  48  83  48 /  20   0  10  10
Timberon                 82  48  82  48 /  20   0  10  10
Winston                  87  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                93  60  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                95  51  94  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             89  36  88  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   91  53  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    95  49  94  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               90  45  91  45 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  90  56  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   94  57  95  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  94  59  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           94  58  96  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               88  58  89  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz