Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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830 FXUS64 KEPZ 171027 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 427 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 234 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 We will start a warming trend today that will continue into the start of next week. Sunday and Monday`s high temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above average. We will have little chance for rain over the next 7 days, with very low relative humidity readings much of next week. We will see less winds today and Saturday, but then breezy to windy conditions will occur most days next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 The one two shot of upper levels troughs is finally moving off to the east this morning. Behind the systems that brought us some rain and wind yesterday, we will see an upper level ridge begin to build across the region. This upper level ridge will dry us out, slow our winds and jump our high temperatures. Today`s high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the highs we saw on Thursday. By Sunday our high temperatures will be running 5 to 8 degrees above average. Drier air will be pushing into the region and along with the ridge aloft, we won`t see any rain chances through weekend, and really through much of next week. By late Sunday the upper level ridge will push off to the east and for most of next week, we will sit under a very dry southwest flow aloft. Occasionally a short wave trough will dash through the southwest flow and that trough will give a bump to our winds. Basically for Sunday through Thursday of next week, we will see breezy to windy afternoon conditions. Right now, the windiest day looks like it will be on Monday, but Tuesday through Thursday also look breezy to windy as well. Monday`s high temperatures will be well above average, but high temperatures for the rest of the week will only be a few degrees above average. Next week is looking warm and very dry. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 The second of two upper-level disturbances will slowly drop across the region overnight, and depart early Friday morning. There remains a bit of marginal moisture in place, and minimal dynamics. That means still some slim chances for isolated and light rain showers overnight, but not expecting any thunderstorms. Skies will be variable from scattered to overcast, but expect them to be generally scattered to broken, with CIGs at or above 110-130kft. Some areas will see tempo SCT-BKN070-080 in vcty of any -SHRA. Winds will be mostly in the 5-10kt range from 270-330. Possible tempo gusts to 20- 25kt with any passing shower. Tomorrow winds will increase in the early afternoon back to 10-15kts from 250-270. Clouds will diminish through the day, with skies becoming FEW140 to SKC aft 21Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 We will see little chances for rain over the next 5 days. We will see a drying trend over the next couple of days. Today`s min RH`s will be in the teens in the lowlands and near 20% in area mountains. For Saturday our min RH`s will be in the single digits in the lowlands and in the teens in the mountains and for Sunday through much of next week the min RH`s will be in the single digits in the lowlands and near 10% in area mountains. The winds the next couple of days will be on the low side of things, but winds increase and will be breezy to windy for Sunday through the middle of next week. We will see elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for Sunday through at least Wednesday of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 91 66 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 82 60 91 62 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 90 61 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 85 57 93 61 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 62 44 69 49 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 87 60 92 61 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 79 54 83 54 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 89 56 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 87 55 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 88 64 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 87 55 96 58 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 90 58 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 81 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 90 61 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 87 59 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 87 56 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 89 57 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 62 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 85 58 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 74 50 82 52 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 73 49 81 51 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 72 48 79 51 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 79 52 84 51 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 85 57 90 57 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 86 54 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 81 49 85 50 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 83 52 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 87 54 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 82 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 82 55 87 55 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 86 55 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 86 55 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 86 55 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 81 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice