Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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033 FXUS64 KEPZ 012330 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 530 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Hot and dry conditions expected through much of the week. The hottest days of the year are coming Wednesday through Friday with a high temperature above 105 degrees around El Paso. Isolated thunderstorms could return as we go into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Models coming into pretty good agreement for much of the period. We start out with the dryline over eastern CWA and expect it to push back to about the area it made it to this morning around the Rio Grande. This push should not be as long lived as increasing WSW flow aloft pushes it east of area by 18Z. Temperatures Sunday will be close to or maybe a couple degrees cooler than today. Westerly winds will be on the increase during the day with 10-20mph speeds expected by mid afternoon. Little change for Monday with westerly flow continuing, temperatures again fluctuate very little, but could see a bounce back of a degree or two. For Tuesday through Friday, GFS has come around much closer to what the EC has been showing for days as well as ensemble mean. This solution has a cutoff low developing near Northern Baja and a strong ridge building right over the Borderland. Prior runs of the GFS kept lifting this upper low through the Four Corners around Thu with fairly widespread precip chances. New GFS/Ensemble mean and EC keep low along the coast through Friday with little chance for precip Thu. Weakness developing in the ridge later in the week may allow some moisture to push in from the east and bring a slight chance for storms Friday afternoon and evening. Low level moisture will not be impressive, so the biggest threat from these storms would likely be gusty outflow winds. The main concern for the forecast period will be Wed-Fri with the ridge in place and temperatures warming quickly. Strong agreement among models that Thursday will be the hottest day. NBM temps have increased some over the last couple of days and now look more reasonable with a high around 107 for KELP Thu, 90th percentile Thu has 109. All lowland locations look to be 100+ Thursday. Wednesday and Friday will also be very hot but just 2-3 degrees cooler than Thu. Will need to look at possible Heat Advisories for this period, especially around El Paso Metro area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with mainly SKC. The winds are generally light and variable in direction. However, there are occasional gusts of up to 25 kts at KLRU and KTCS. The winds will decrease in gustiness by around 01Z. The winds across the entire terminals will become breezy 11 to 17 kts with gusts up to 26kts and out from the southwest after 16Z. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Hot and dry conditions will be the norm through most of the period. A few mountain storms are possible going into Thursday. High temperatures will be near 100 for the lowlands to start the period, but by Thursday some areas could see highs above 105 degrees. Minimum RH`s in the single digits each day through Tuesday, then going into Wed and Thu the Sacs will work into the lower to mid teens. Winds will start out low end breezy Sunday and Monday, but as upper ridge builds, winds will decrease for midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 93 63 93 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 61 97 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 95 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 72 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 61 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 56 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 95 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 57 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 58 98 57 98 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 100 62 100 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 61 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 98 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 95 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 57 95 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 97 56 98 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 85 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 51 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 48 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 52 87 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 59 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 54 94 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 86 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 53 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 54 92 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 56 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 56 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 93 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 58 93 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 58 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira