181
FXUS64 KEPZ 241107
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
507 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Warm, dry, and breezy weather through next weekend. Saturday will
feature the strongest winds, leading to Extreme fire weather
conditions. Dry weather will continue through the rest of the
month with warmer temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Prevailing southwest flow over the weekend, keeping the region
dry and temperatures steady right near normal for late May.
Lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s through Monday, with
afternoon winds 10 to 20 mph out of the southwest today.

Subtropical jet streak aloft will lead to stronger winds on
Saturday. 989mb lee surface low over SE Colorado and subsequent
trough through New Mexico will promote efficient mixing into
strong winds aloft during the afternoon hours. Sustained WSW winds
of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph will be common. Patchy
blowing dust may also occur, especially along the International
Border and east of White Sands NP. The main impact with this
increase in winds will be the critical to extreme fire weather
conditions due to the combination of strong winds and very dry
air. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Saturday as the risk for
extreme fire behavior peaks.

Broad ridge developing over the US Southwest within the flow
aloft early next week, timed well with a surface high across the
Southern Plains and westward push of the dryline boundary. We may
see a moisture intrusion as far west as the Rio Grande valley
Tuesday/Wednesday, but storm chances will remain well to our east
as the shallowness of atmospheric moisture and quick diurnal
mixing scours out any rain chances by the afternoon.

The greater influence of a high pressure system over central
Mexico will allow temperatures to climb locally. Above normal
temperatures return Tuesday through the rest of next week with
lowland highs in the upper 90s. NBM probabilities are highlighting
a good chance for El Paso to see our first 100-degree reading of
the year midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

VMC all terminals today under dry, southwest flow aloft. Skies
SKC-FEW250. Surface winds generally 240-260 at 10-15 knots today,
with peak gusts to 25 knots late-afternoon. Smoke from nearby
wildfires affecting southeast NM, but no visibility restrictions
expected at KELP and surrounding runways. Winds will be stronger
tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

Elevated fire danger today as wind speeds drop a bit from
yesterday. Southwest 20-ft winds 10 to 15 mph along with min RH
remaining very dry (3-10%). Smoke ventilation becoming Excellent
by the noon time hour with transport to the ENE.

Main concern will be Saturday afternoon as a jet streak aloft and
subsequent development of a deeper surface low over the High
Plains increases southwest flow across New Mexico and west Texas.
Humidity remains very dry area wide, with min RH 5-13%. WSW winds
increasing quickly during the late morning/early afternoon 20 to
30 mph with peak gusts around 45 mph mid-afternoon. Fire Weather
Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of
Lincoln National Forest and Guadalupe Range to Extreme Risk due
to the combination of hazardous weather conditions and above
normal fuel dryness. Any fires that develop will spread quickly
through the forested areas, and ongoing wildfires will be
difficult to control. The only good news is that wind directions
will remain consistent throughout the day, with smoke transport to
the east.

Rapid drying of fuels will continue next week due to the low
humidity, poor overnight recoveries, and breezy afternoon winds.
Winds speeds do look lower Sunday through the rest of the week,
which may allow us to avoid future Red Flags. ERCs are near
normal over Gila NF (60-75th percentile), but well above normal
across the southwest lowlands and Lincoln NF (75-98th percentile).
These numbers are forecast to increase quickly the next few weeks
as continued dry weather and elevated fire danger continues. No
precipitation expected through the rest of the month.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  66  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            88  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  59  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  58  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  46  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    89  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              80  51  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   90  53  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                88  54  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                92  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             94  57  98  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               84  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   92  60  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  56  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           89  64  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  55  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  56  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 90  59  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  81  52  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                76  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 76  47  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  81  48  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  53  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  51  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             81  47  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   84  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    87  51  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               82  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  84  51  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   89  53  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  89  56  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  53  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               83  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt