Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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592 FXUS64 KEPZ 311133 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 533 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Above normal temperatures, breezy afternoons and mostly dry conditions can be expected through the forecast period. Slight chances for precipitation possible today through Sunday but Saturday could be the best chance for rain in Otero and Hudspeth counties. Hot temperatures are expected to stay the next 7 days, but Wednesday and Thursday appear to feature the hottest temperatures. In addition, areawide rain chances possible heading into Thursday and Friday next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Today through Monday: 500 mb flow generally stays zonal with the exception of a few wiggles in the flow here and there through Monday. Surface moisture is expected to push in tonight and parts of the morning hours but isn`t expected to progress too far westward. Moisture may only reach portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties before it shifts eastward tomorrow. The dryline does stay fairly stagnant and may hover over the eastern CWA line through the day. This will unfortunately hurt our precipitation chances but the Sacramento Mtns could have a chance to see a shower this afternoon. The dryline surges west Friday night into Saturday making better progress than the day before. It looks like the dryline could make it as far as the Rio Grande Valley Saturday morning and pushes east through the day. A slight chance for thunderstorms exists in eastern Hudspeth and Otero counties that afternoon but looks like most of the action stays just east of the area. We continue to play the dryline game on Sunday but moisture seems to push out too soon for storms to get going, leaving the area dry. High temperatures stay above normal today and through Monday with lowlands seeing mid 90s to low 100s and the mountains with high temperatures in the low 70s/mid 80s. Tuesday through Friday: Low pressure is expected to form just west of Baja California early during the work week and is expected to remain in this same general position through the forecast period. This will allow for building high pressure over the area as an upper-low will be found over the Great Lakes towards the end of the work week. This appears to be setting up as an omega blocking pattern keeping high pressure over the area. However, the GFS allows for good moisture over the area Thursday/Friday allowing for rain chances areawide but the EC doesn`t feature this moisture tap keeping the area mostly dry. Confidence is low right now as to what will happen but something to keep an eye on. Expect temperatures to remain hot through the forecast period, but especially Wednesday and Thursday as El Paso could reach 103/104 these days. This will be close to heat advisory criteria as low temperatures are nearing the 75 degree range. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with mostly clear skies areawide and light southwesterly breezes during the afternoon. Winds calm to AOB 10KT after 01-03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions will persist today through Wednesday as much of the area will continue to see critical min RHs areawide, with the lowlands still seeing single digit values. Rain chances continue to look bleak but a shower or two is possible in the Sacramento Mtns this afternoon. Moisture surges in Saturday morning and makes it as far west as the Rio Grande Valley but quickly shifts east through the day. Thunderstorms possible for eastern portions of the Sacs but storms quickly progress eastward out of the area. Our last chance for rain the next few days will be Sunday as the dryline is expected to push into the area once again that morning. However, the dryline looks to push out of our area before storms have a chance to get going. Dry lightning could be possible any of these three days over the weekend. Otherwise, the area stays dry with above average temperatures and breezy afternoons each day. Wednesday and Thursday look like the hottest days of the forecast period. Models are hinting at areawide rain chances towards the end of the work week, but confidence still remains low if this will come to fruition. Ventilation rates will stay very good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 69 101 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 93 62 94 62 / 0 0 10 10 Las Cruces 98 61 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 96 60 97 60 / 10 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 73 48 74 48 / 20 0 10 10 Truth or Consequences 95 62 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 87 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 97 57 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 94 57 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 97 67 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 98 60 97 58 / 0 0 20 10 Fort Hancock 100 60 101 61 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 90 61 91 61 / 0 0 10 10 Fabens 99 62 100 63 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 95 59 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 97 67 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 96 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 98 57 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 96 62 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 95 62 96 62 / 0 0 10 0 Mayhill 82 52 85 51 / 20 0 10 10 Mescalero 84 51 84 51 / 20 0 10 10 Timberon 82 50 83 49 / 20 0 10 10 Winston 87 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 93 60 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 95 56 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 89 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 91 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 95 56 96 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 90 58 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 90 58 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 94 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 94 59 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 94 58 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 88 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher