708
FXUS64 KEPZ 262002
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
202 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Quiet weather conditions with light breezes, warming temperatures,
and generally mostly sunny skies expected through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with warm,
very dry, and stagnant pattern in place

The upper level trough responsible for yesterday`s active weather
has since moved east. Weather becomes quiet with upper level ridge
building in across the Desert Southwest. The ridge axis initially
sets-up over us, but gradually moves east Wednesday into Thursday.
This will keep us bone dry with warming temperatures and afternoon
breezes. Earlier model runs had moisture slipping into Hudspeth and
eastern Otero Counties Tuesday and Wednesday with NBM still holding
onto some ghost chances for showers. Each successive model run,
especially from the GFS and Euro, casts further and further doubt
this will occur. As the ridge slides east into the Plains, deep SW
flow will allow temperatures to climb well into the 90s with El Paso
making a run at its first 100. Latest run of the NBM has El Paso
hitting 100 on Tuesday. Afterwards, height falls and a minor trough
passage look to bring highs back down a few degrees, but still well
into the 90s. Looking beyond, model and ensemble guidance shows
growing confidence in that the upper level ridge responsible for our
typical June heat will begin taking shape by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC.
Winds will become breezy this afternoon out of 250-280 direction
at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Winds will decrease
after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Fire weather conditions will remain ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL
through the forecast period as a very dry, warm, and stagnant-like
pattern builds in across the region. Afternoon Min RH values will
remain in the single digits to teens through the week with breezy
winds each afternoon and evening. Winds will range between 10 to 20
mph, predominately out of the southwest through the week. Thus,
ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL fire weather conditions for the
foreseeable future.

Afternoon vent rates will range very good to excellent each
afternoon. Smoke venting will generally be to the east or east-
northeast though some variance to the direction is possible mainly
at night.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  98  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  92  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               58  96  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               56  93  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               46  71  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  92  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              53  85  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   52  95  54  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                54  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  95  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                53  97  56  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             59  99  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               60  89  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   59  98  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             55  94  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           66  94  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            54  92  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    54  95  54  97 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 58  95  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  92  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  51  84  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                48  81  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  80  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  51  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  90  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                52  92  53  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  86  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   50  88  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    52  92  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               54  87  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  54  87  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  92  54  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  93  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  93  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               56  87  57  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers