849
FNUS74 KEPZ 242307
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Moser Fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
507 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on May 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather will persist on Saturday with the min RH around 12%.
The 20ft winds will be breezy in the morning, but will become
windy in the afternoon while out from the west southwest. The
temperature will be near the normal. The ventilation rate will be
excellent. Saturday overnight recovery will be fair. For Sunday,
the dry weather conditions will continue. However, moisture will
increase slightly with the min RH around 14%. The 20ft winds will
be light and out from the west with near average temperature. The
ventilation rate will continue to be excellent. With that being
said, fire weather conditions on Saturday will be critical, but
will become elevated on Sunday.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 21 to 24 mph with gusts to around 49
                    mph.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 42 to 44 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (181100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (307600 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........14     14     19
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............64     68     69
RH..............15     13     12
20 ft wind......W 21   W 21   W 24
20 ft wind gust.44     44     49
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   7500   7500
Transport wind..W 42   W 44   W 44
Haines index....4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..181    308    308
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 14 to 23 mph with gusts to around 48
                    mph decreasing to around 12 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 36 mph decreasing to 22 to 23 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (289200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (8300 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........15     15     9      8      8      7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............66     57     52     48     46     44
RH..............12     17     22     28     33     37
20 ft wind......W 23   W 23   W 17   W 14   W 14   W 12
20 ft wind gust.48     48     37     26     26     23
Mix hgt (ft)....7600   7600   600    600    400    400
Transport wind..W 36   W 36   W 23   W 23   W 22   W 22
Haines index....5      5      4      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..289    289    8      8      9      9
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (45600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (108900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (155300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........4         2         2         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............43        55        65        69
RH..............38        27        18        14
20 FT wind......W 8G14    W 8G16    W 8G18    W 9G18
Mix hgt (ft)....3000      3000      6400      7800
Transport wind..NW 17     NW 17     W 18      W 22
Haines index....3         2         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46        46        109       155
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MEMORIAL DAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds
around 6 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southwest winds around 7 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Brian Anderson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414853.2/EPZ
.DELDT 05/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Brian.d.anderson@usda.gov