Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
458 FNUS74 KEPZ 252245 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Blue 2...USFS National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 445 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on May 26. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... Dry conditions will persist on Sunday with no precipitation in sight. The min RHs will be around 17%. The 20ft winds will be low end breezy around 13 mph and from the west with temperature below the normal. The ventilation rate will be very good. Sunday overnight recovery will be fair. For Monday, dry conditions will continue with a decrease in the min RH of 10%. The 20ft winds will be light to low end breezy 7 to 12 mph and from the southwest in the afternoon. The temperature will be near the normal. The ventilation rate will continue to be very good. With that said, fire weather conditions will be elevated on Sunday and near critical on Monday. For the rest of the period, there will be no improvement in the fire weather conditions as concerns will be near critical stage. .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 58. Min humidity........17 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 13 mph. Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 20 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (70200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (114000 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........2 2 5 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 Temp............55 57 58 RH..............22 20 17 20 ft wind......W 13 W 13 W 13 20 ft wind gust.24 24 24 Mix hgt (ft)....4100 6200 6200 Transport wind..W 20 W 20 W 20 Haines index....2 3 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..70 114 114 Ventrate Cat....GOOD VYGD VYGD .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 45. Max humidity........22 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 11 mph. Mixing height.......0 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (105100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........3 3 6 6 6 7 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............56 52 49 48 47 45 RH..............17 19 20 18 20 22 20 ft wind......SW 11 SW 11 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 S 8 20 ft wind gust.22 22 18 20 20 15 Mix hgt (ft)....6200 6200 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 Transport wind..SW 16 SW 16 SW 14 SW 14 S 11 S 11 Haines index....6 6 6 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..105 105 0 0 0 0 Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR .MEMORIAL DAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 64. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......9400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the southwest 10 to 14 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (28000 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (109200 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........4 3 5 6 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............45 53 60 64 RH..............22 19 15 11 20 FT wind......SE 8G14 SE 7G17 SW 9G22 SW 12G24 Mix hgt (ft)....3500 3500 9200 9400 Transport wind..SE 10 SE 10 SW 10 SW 14 Haines index....5 4 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..28 28 92 109 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD VYGD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 11 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. South winds around 11 mph. .THURSDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 12 mph. $$ Forecaster...TEXEIRA Requested by...Ryan Whiteaker Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2415086.0/EPZ .DELDT 05/25/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL ryan.whiteaker@usda.gov