Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
886
FNUS74 KEPZ 230129
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Blue 2...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
729 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 MDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
A persistent dry southwest flow pattern will continue elevated fire
conditions through this forecast period. The dry air will keep the
skies clear. Nights will be cool but days will be slightly warmer than
normal. Relative humidity recovery will remain poor with very low
minimum daytime RH, dropping to around 10 percent. Winds will be mostly
light in the overnights, but become breezy to windy in the afternoons.
Critical (Red Flag) conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon, and
then elevated into the weekend.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....40-44.
Max humidity........17-21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to
around 20 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (49000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........0 0 0 0 0
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............50 46 44 42 41
RH..............13 14 15 18 19
20 ft wind......SW 20 SW 17 W 12 W 9 W 7
20 ft wind gust.33 31 24 20 16
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SW 22 W 17 W 17 W 16 W 16
Haines index....6 6 6 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..49 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....66-70.
Min humidity........9-11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 15 to 22 mph. Gusts up to 40
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 26 mph shifting to the southwest
around 31 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (33300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (94400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (154000
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........0 0 3 2 2 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............41 49 55 61 66 69
RH..............19 17 14 11 10 9
20 ft wind......SW 15 SW 15 SW 19 SW 21 SW 21 SW 22
20 ft wind gust.25 25 35 38 40 40
Mix hgt (ft)....1900 1900 4200 4200 4900 4900
Transport wind..W 18 W 18 W 26 W 26 SW 31 SW 31
Haines index....5 5 5 4 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33 33 94 94 154 154
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD EXNT EXNT
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southwest winds 16 to 25 mph with gusts
to around 47 mph shifting to the west around 13
mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 32 mph becoming west 14 to 21
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (148600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(0 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........4 6 9 11
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............57 49 46 43
RH..............9 11 14 18
20 FT wind......SW 25G47 SW 21G38 SW 16G29 W 13G24
Mix hgt (ft)....4800 4800 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SW 32 SW 32 W 21 W 14
Haines index....5 5 5 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..149 149 0 0
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 33 mph.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (73700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (118400
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........12 13 13
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............42 56 68
RH..............19 13 11
20 FT wind......W 10G16 W 10G20 SW 13G26
Mix hgt (ft)....900 5200 5700
Transport wind..W 12 W 14 SW 21
Haines index....4 4 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 74 118
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Very dry. Critical Fire Weather. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs around 60. Min RH near 9 percent. Southwest winds around
13 mph, becoming breezy to windy 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds
around 18 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest
winds around 12 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Jon Crane
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414960.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL xavier.anderson@lacnm.us