690
FNUS74 KEPZ 230144
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for BOTELLA...BIA-MESCALERO
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
744 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 MDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A persistent dry southwest flow pattern will continue elevated fire
conditions through this forecast period. The dry air will keep the
skies clear. Nights will be cool but days will be slightly warmer than
normal. Relative humidity recovery will remain poor with very low
minimum daytime RH, dropping to around 10 percent. Winds will be mostly
light in the overnights, but become breezy to windy in the afternoons.
Critical (Red Flag) conditions are expected tomorrow and likely again
on Saturday, and then elevated going forward.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....40-44.
Max humidity........22-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (74300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (9600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      0      0
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............59     52     48     44     41
RH..............12     16     18     20     23
20 ft wind......SW 13  SW 10  SW 9   SW 9   SW 10
20 ft wind gust.20     16     14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....800    700    700    700    700
Transport wind..SW 16  W 15   W 15   W 14   W 14
Haines index....6      6      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..74     10     10     10     10
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....73-76.
Min humidity........6-9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 19 mph with gusts 30
                    to 35 mph
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 16 mph increasing to 27 to 34 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (88700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (184600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (232400
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      4      3      2      2      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............40     50     61     68     72     76
RH..............25     20     14     10     8      7
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 12  SW 15  SW 19  SW 19  SW 19
20 ft wind gust.18     18     28     33     33     33
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   4400   6800   6800   7200   7200
Transport wind..W 16   W 16   W 27   W 27   W 34   W 34
Haines index....5      5      5      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..89     89     185    185    232    232
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 32 mph shifting to the west around 8 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 33 mph decreasing to 15 to 22 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (216800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (11700 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........4         6         9         10
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............71        56        49        44
RH..............7         11        15        21
20 FT wind......SW 18G32  SW 16G26  W 12G20   W 8G15
Mix hgt (ft)....6800      6800      800       800
Transport wind..W 33      W 33      W 22      W 15
Haines index....5         5         5         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..217       217       14        12
Ventrate Cat....EXNT      EXNT      POOR      POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Clear and dry. Critical fire weather conditions. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Min RH near 8 percent. Southwest
winds around 13 mph, becoming windy 20 to 25 mph with gusts 30
to 35 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds
around 14 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...
Clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...NICHOLAS GARCIA
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414963.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV